Us Politics · resolved market
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d4497256b9de806bcdce789fc490102fa15b43231d509237ef93f39a7b0c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,308$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 4c | 756.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 78c | 721.28$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 78c | 630.32$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…f419backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…eddebacked Yes | 23c | 441.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 11c | 358.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 12c | 327.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 78c | 303.34$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 287.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 80c | 285.19$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…3d0bbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b99…f82cbacked Yes | 13c | 225.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 223.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 5c | 222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…ec63backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…f6f8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…3f46backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 79c | 189.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 10c | 162.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Yes | 21c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 155.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd95c…c18ebacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 135.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked No | 75c | 133.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…4505backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 79c | 108.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 23c | 104.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…8129backed Yes | 20c | 101.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…1a59backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 94.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…4a8dbacked Yes | 21c | 92.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…bf77backed Yes | 23c | 88.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd8…dfdcbacked Yes | 20c | 73.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 74c | 65.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…d278backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 61.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked No | 80c | 55.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 24c | 47.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…82f6backed Yes | 26c | 45.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 25c | 43.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…cb5abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…ca12backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…bb6ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…a11dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…1b4cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 39.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…74d9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +435.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…b876backed No | 79c | 36.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Yes | 33c | 30.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 73c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.