TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0373…ff0d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
181
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 62 out of 100; worst Movies at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT4355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30.47
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$77.18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+312.4%+$69.92
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+695.3%+$100.47
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$304.82
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.06
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$15.69
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+121.9%+$432.69
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+152.8%+$181.12
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$454Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$147.71
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$14.43
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$95.95
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+101.8%+$66.34
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.36
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$33.98
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.67
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+53.5%+$14.1
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$16.27
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.65
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.42
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+177.8%+$35.46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$121.15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$72.89
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$33.29
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2560%15 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+64.8%+$88.5
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$24.52
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.5
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$12.02
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.28
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.28
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+210.3%+$44.05
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+126%+$26.73
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26%+$26.52
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$145.82
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+53.2%+$244.93
Will Jean-Paul Lecoq be the next mayor of Le Havre?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.89
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+26%+$93.62
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$85.12
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.62
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.53
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+30.5%+$17.55
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20.33
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+54.4%+$6.6
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+41.6%+$40.52
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+284.8%+$336.9
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$224.75
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.79
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+34.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$5.72
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$22.72
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$14.56
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+72%+$94.81
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.28
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$16.65
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+47.1%+$9.6
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$12.15
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+65%+$7.12
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,008Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+25.3%+$254.71
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+68.5%+$22.03
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.67
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+75.4%+$8.97
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.45
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+46.2%+$15.61
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$15.9
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.1
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$13.71
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.4
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.12
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.48
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$10.08
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.52
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.84
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$40.5
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15.76
Will Kate Hudson be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.59
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+32.6%+$20.91
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+62.1%+$39.05
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$5.62
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.41
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$18.39
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.8
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.72
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$15.54
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$99.47
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+77.6%+$204.76
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+50.1%+$42.53
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+222.6%+$64.14
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+40.8%+$25.2
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+41.6%+$12.41
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+188.5%+$58.7
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+38.9%+$8.4
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+74.8%+$128.17
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+37.3%+$212.91
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+150.2%+$117.84
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+117.6%+$30.79
Over $7M committed to the Fabric public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+127.3%+$16.8
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+26.4%+$13.05
Over $26M committed to the Space public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+36.5%+$24.72
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$66.4
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.75
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$18.13
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.04
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.37
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$636Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$636.12
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.73
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+33.1%+$131.39
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.3
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+75.2%+$25.32
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+39.7%+$10.68
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$26.46
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+38.5%+$73.37
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$31.5
Senators vs. Panthersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.25
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$33.75
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.55
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$55.5
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$45.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$15.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+46.3%+$13.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.