Token Launches · resolved market
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cde05f9ccf7986b8ff404d74dfdc7d026792f6ae18a8438c8af714b19269802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $471,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $479,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 31,701$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.73 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…12f2backed Yes | 18c | 24,980$4,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,546.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 79c | 19,337$15,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,134.62 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…8b9dbacked Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 74c | 8,054$5,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.57 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…62b6backed Yes | 0c | 7,453$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…b6dbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,453$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478c…e3c8backed Yes | 0c | 7,453$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…a2dabacked Yes | 0c | 7,453$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebd…0aa2backed Yes | 3c | 7,170$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 77c | 7,031$5,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.12 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc734…716fbacked No | 69c | 5,353$3,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…9598backed Yes | 4c | 4,486$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 75c | 4,317$3,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.74 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 4c | 3,546$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 3,169$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.66 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…cd3abacked Yes | 13c | 3,056$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4b…77d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes | 29c | 2,996$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…dbcabacked Yes | 27c | 2,864$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…19f1backed No | 73c | 2,817$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…8c21backed No | 73c | 2,816$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,794$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4f…8bbabacked Yes | 27c | 2,792$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…1eaebacked Yes | 65c | 2,592$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…da44backed Yes | 28c | 2,492$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,479$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.33 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 77c | 2,207$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.43 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 29c | 2,186$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.41 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee6…49f8backed Yes | 4c | 2,058$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…61e1backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,983$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…7846backed No | 73c | 1,978$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5621…9c70backed Yes | 27c | 1,929$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed No | 78c | 1,788$1,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.36 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5a…8afbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,739$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac52…3db9backed No | 68c | 1,728$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…d42bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,682$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,679$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…6416backed Yes | 6c | 1,677$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…6195backed Yes | 7c | 1,673$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…9d2cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,658$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…53c9backed No | 73c | 1,642$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…d4c3backed No | 67c | 1,581$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…94b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,555$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…b1e8backed No | 68c | 1,549$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…ee5bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,547$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 13c | 1,543$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…bab7backed Yes | 7c | 1,525$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…3733backed No | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…cabcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,467$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes | 4c | 1,466$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 35c | 1,455$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb58…ab2ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,427$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes | 73c | 1,399$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…9427backed No | 72c | 1,395$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…f115backed Yes | 25c | 1,380$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked No | 76c | 1,345$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,300$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.67 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…c72dbacked No | 78c | 1,261$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 4c | 1,243$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…72cdbacked No | 73c | 1,239$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,230$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…53f0backed Yes | 27c | 1,211$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 27c | 1,204$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.92 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 6c | 1,199$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,194$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed No | 78c | 1,100$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked No | 73c | 1,100$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed No | 75c | 1,097$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.13 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…a9cbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,049$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…9cefbacked Yes | 5c | 1,031$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…226cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,010$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.61 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…4ae5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 3c | 904.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 32c | 876.95$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.91 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…ffa0backed Yes | 5c | 869.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…c0cdbacked Yes | 24c | 850$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 849.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…ab04backed Yes | 7c | 783$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50f…2b9abacked Yes | 30c | 758$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4369…010fbacked Yes | 32c | 750.31$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7d…a496backed Yes | 31c | 742.87$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 70c | 720$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…b0a6backed Yes | 27c | 697.31$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…ff5abacked Yes | 30c | 690$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 72c | 681.74$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.62 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x818d…a72abacked No | 65c | 680.08$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 31c | 669.18$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.43 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked No | 70c | 658.62$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…a440backed No | 75c | 655.2$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed No | 47c | 651.17$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…d21dbacked Yes | 11c | 646.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5590…8e3dbacked Yes | 32c | 643$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…eee8backed Yes | 6c | 642.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bff…6417backed No | 73c | 642.62$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…5dbbbacked Yes | 17c | 622.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.