Token Launches · resolved market
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a1ddff73911c5fdca4f5e70704894c6615739b13c2733e84fff6c2118fbce66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $779,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $854,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $779,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 735 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 31,766$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.75 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 9c | 21,256$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…12f2backed Yes | 33c | 20,000$6,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,659.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…36b3backed Yes | 68c | 19,111$12,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,923.43 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…4c83backed Yes | 16c | 18,285$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 9c | 10,655$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.97 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 41c | 9,416$3,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,545.19 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…8002backed No | 30c | 8,950$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,265 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 38c | 8,878$3,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,373.95 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked No | 61c | 8,355$5,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 8,308$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.48 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bc…e4eabacked No | 41c | 8,283$3,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,925.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 21c | 8,120$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.8 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed No | 29c | 7,593$2,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,358.81 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 69c | 7,558$5,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,193.86 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 43c | 7,103$3,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,045.35 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe30a…34afbacked Yes | 71c | 6,995$4,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,971.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed No | 37c | 6,916$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,356.52 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 17c | 6,361$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.03 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…69e1backed No | 37c | 6,225$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,915.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6429…33fcbacked Yes | 43c | 6,142$2,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,654.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Yes | 10c | 5,850$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 31c | 4,563$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160.96 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…5822backed Yes | 67c | 4,519$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed No | 78c | 4,395$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.32 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 17c | 4,339$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…a517backed Yes | 10c | 4,195$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 18c | 4,052$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.43 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 66c | 4,000$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.97 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 49c | 3,933$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,852$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebd…0aa2backed Yes | 6c | 3,814$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…9a79backed Yes | 13c | 3,735$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,719$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.11 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…6416backed No | 40c | 3,557$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1f…5317backed Yes | 59c | 3,227$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…2218backed Yes | 16c | 3,198$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…f18abacked Yes | 70c | 3,150$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…cd3abacked Yes | 17c | 3,100$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed No | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 48c | 2,972$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.71 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…1835backed Yes | 70c | 2,970$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…f63abacked Yes | 70c | 2,830$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5a…8afbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,817$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…7481backed Yes | 75c | 2,773$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3b…10eebacked Yes | 65c | 2,769$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 67c | 2,763$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa61a…3d71backed Yes | 20c | 2,531$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a4…a548backed Yes | 14c | 2,411$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…92b4backed Yes | 17c | 2,405$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…6972backed No | 78c | 2,373$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4b…77d9backed Yes | 8c | 2,329$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…1078backed Yes | 15c | 2,222$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275f…39d9backed Yes | 76c | 2,217$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Yes | 8c | 2,179$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,157$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.74 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…dfddbacked Yes | 58c | 2,147$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 2,089$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 64c | 2,081$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.02 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 67c | 2,032$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.09 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…2fe1backed No | 27c | 2,000$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 14c | 1,957$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…84cdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,924$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd831…cc54backed Yes | 2c | 1,917$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 72c | 1,881$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 66c | 1,759$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.06 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 4c | 1,720$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,700$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 1,680$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…267ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,603$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…767fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,584$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.02 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…1522backed Yes | 16c | 1,574$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 6c | 1,555$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…badebacked Yes | 11c | 1,542$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3c…42ffbacked No | 80c | 1,541$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…7b91backed No | 75c | 1,534$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 14c | 1,532$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.63 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9a…9cc7backed No | 76c | 1,499$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 30c | 1,498$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 13c | 1,485$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.86 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…9598backed Yes | 13c | 1,448$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 48c | 1,418$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,409$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,363$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,343$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.02 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…20a0backed Yes | 74c | 1,335$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +525%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,271$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.73 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…c872backed Yes | 15c | 1,254$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…0230backed Yes | 62c | 1,249$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.71 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 80c | 1,248$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.51 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Yes | 9c | 1,213$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Yes | 65c | 1,200$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,191$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.29 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f52fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,143$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…b560backed Yes | 15c | 1,121$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…f389backed Yes | 9c | 1,119$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed Yes | 10c | 1,116$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Based FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?Yes won
- Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.