TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5714…5822

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Lol, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.14
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$59.51
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Seasonbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$40.39
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$83.78
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-Inbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$107.33
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked Oh My God · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+112.8%+$693.77
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+29.9%+$163.3
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverancebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+138.1%+$290
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+75.6%+$93.93
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$70
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.24
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$420.22
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,567Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+154.8%+$2,424.76
Nets vs. Pistonsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$577Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+604.3%+$3,485.59
Celtics vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$2,070
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+88.7%+$117.03
Raptors vs. Magicbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$116
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$17.99
Lakers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$452.76
Pelicans vs. Pacersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$69.29
Grizzlies vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.5
Bulls vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+73.2%+$117.68
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$72
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.15
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,042Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,042.22
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$313.18
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+38.6%+$96.15
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15.87
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$251
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$74.2
Will Zama launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$114.9
All 11 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Sabresbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$191.04
Jets vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,416Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$1,921.68
Hurricanes vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$475.2
Panthers vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$122.2
All 4 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.17
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$391Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$912.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$258.31
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$498.45
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteersbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+284.6%+$79.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+42.9%+$8.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$206
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.