TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$280,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d30…a42dbacked No62c69,129$43,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,972.661560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes39c23,900$9,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,267.5633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1350…0841backed No61c14,300$8,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,576.971566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes22c13,198$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes37c13,098$4,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,846.261346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d56…d8febacked Yes29c9,910$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes8c8,594$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.188932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked No61c8,535$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes37c7,607$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,840.2469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…f402backed No66c7,421$4,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes39c5,822$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.642454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes38c5,397$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.9934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No62c5,375$3,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.354264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No75c5,084$3,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.8422669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Yes39c4,276$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed No62c3,940$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.322552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Yes38c3,801$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.22931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes34c3,206$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.976761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes12c2,930$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.0564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…8ea7backed Yes18c2,923$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Yes39c2,890$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes39c2,890$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.1812651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes38c2,818$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.561,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Yes39c2,647$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a3…785bbacked Yes38c2,534$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No78c2,335$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.643,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No70c2,197$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.073339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa4…3409backed Yes29c2,190$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.011631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Yes38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7603548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc253…7cf5backed Yes37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7401241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc674…dcd2backed Yes39c1,577$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Yes1c1,545$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.692941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0a…e440backed Yes38c1,504$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No66c1,484$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.658448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed No62c1,465$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.778143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebec…e41cbacked No62c1,419$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes30c1,341$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.363557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes38c1,305$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.081618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe87…6fc0backed No61c1,275$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.413756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes39c1,235$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.75538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes38c1,100$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4184641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64c…e605backed Yes11c1,047$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0be6…3b7fbacked Yes39c1,025$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.61520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-68%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Yes37c1,010$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…ee7abacked Yes2c988.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…9837backed Yes38c981.05$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes37c962.2$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.014965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5714…5822backed Yes38c942.56$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Yes5c911.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.522035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd6…e33abacked Yes11c871.37$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.65922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Yes22c862.21$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Yes39c827.54$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3e…7857backed Yes31c811.25$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.722352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4147…902abacked Yes20c696.08$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No62c655.77$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.196755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Yes39c650.24$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.594461.4%27 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No62c626.8$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24128755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked No61c622.94$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.95650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Yes39c617.56$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No62c615.64$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.94837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes38c614.61$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.557152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked No61c601.49$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.582941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a99…8302backed Yes39c588.64$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No62c525.27$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.2729855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…50c8backed Yes38c506.74$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.563941%16 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No61c499.94$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9838646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4791…07f8backed Yes38c496.54$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.71119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick37cpaid-76.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes38c496.46$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.663345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Yes38c464$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.321822.2%4 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-60.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes5c460.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0433737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes10c460.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8148141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes11c457.43$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2743532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No75c456.86$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.8940744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No72c445.89$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9818644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes37c420.74$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.751,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fc…6946backed Yes34c406.76$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d33…4af5backed Yes39c402.65$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.03650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No74c393.76$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3819458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes39c385.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.296543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2d…6f93backed Yes39c385.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.291030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Yes39c385.24$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes27c384.97$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.294153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x174b…7a05backed Yes39c383.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x867b…9fbabacked Yes26c367.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.561546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c5…2909backed Yes38c366.83$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed No69c363.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2321355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes39c324.59$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.595851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1147646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1177129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes39c296.43$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.615651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes38c288.84$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7614652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2363…b0e8backed Yes39c275.29$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25ea…8cd0backed Yes38c271.51$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes10c264.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd017…2701backed Yes39c260.66$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Yes38c253.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.281560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd6…95e3backed Yes38c250.83$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Yes39c247.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.34540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.