Token Launches · resolved market
Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee09716824550958a513a8c0876abe2ac180ca0bd2cc8429d086cc85a6be1ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $300,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $300,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 6c | 25,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…dafabacked Yes | 75c | 19,920$14,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,004.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 74c | 15,268$11,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,027 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed No | 33c | 10,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked No | 4c | 9,988$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…4925backed No | 30c | 8,758$2,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 13c | 6,913$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.85 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 21c | 5,857$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 29c | 5,723$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.96 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 74c | 5,478$4,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.26 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…f378backed No | 22c | 5,463$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…9385backed No | 10c | 4,990$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Yes | 70c | 4,821$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 13c | 4,794$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.1 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 13c | 4,451$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.87 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 46c | 4,401$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa0…db96backed Yes | 75c | 4,256$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd787…fa33backed No | 15c | 3,530$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc15…1cfabacked Yes | 75c | 3,167$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No | 13c | 3,043$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.01 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…a8ecbacked No | 33c | 3,038$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked No | 24c | 2,745$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,548$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 10c | 2,538$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.61 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7d…e7c9backed No | 20c | 2,518$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked Yes | 63c | 2,400$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 2,372$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…0e2abacked No | 2c | 1,903$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 17c | 1,872$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.01 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd688…1059backed No | 20c | 1,783$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 25c | 1,707$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.16 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 15c | 1,619$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.16 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 76c | 1,604$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.75 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc184…4cc0backed No | 8c | 1,578$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed No | 26c | 1,554$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.23 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…6033backed No | 30c | 1,515$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.06 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61a…38e5backed No | 11c | 1,476$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 4c | 1,471$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 30c | 1,451$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.47 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 12c | 1,337$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.11 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 30c | 1,300$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed No | 24c | 1,275$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…bb25backed No | 1c | 1,145$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 31c | 1,117$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.7 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…0078backed Yes | 67c | 1,114$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 23c | 1,106$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.65 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked No | 9c | 1,099$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 1,048$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.07 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…00cfbacked No | 2c | 1,045$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…de5bbacked No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…4ae5backed No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…85c9backed No | 33c | 992.51$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.73 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfc…83ebbacked Yes | 78c | 986.62$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…9c8ebacked No | 28c | 971.43$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 27c | 961.02$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.87 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Yes | 61c | 919.22$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.84 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 31c | 912.35$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Yes | 72c | 845$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 69c | 819.94$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.87 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 798.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 794.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.63 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed No | 13c | 787.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…b6f4backed No | 10c | 776.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…5796backed No | 13c | 770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 15c | 724.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2121…5f82backed No | 32c | 718.79$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.43 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…d5cfbacked No | 33c | 718.32$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…e5e7backed No | 14c | 700$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…1ab8backed No | 15c | 699.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…8ee7backed No | 14c | 693.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 30c | 689.68$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd29…8ee7backed No | 29c | 689.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 29c | 687.49$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 35c | 670$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…2c7bbacked No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80af…deefbacked No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…3b0cbacked No | 17c | 640.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 635$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1c…9255backed No | 14c | 621.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…03abbacked No | 5c | 602.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 24c | 600$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448f…8496backed No | 16c | 586.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…72a9backed No | 18c | 564.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e45…6f64backed No | 37c | 562.97$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.83 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…de1fbacked Yes | 80c | 557.51$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked No | 19c | 549$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked No | 16c | 546.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 79c | 537.51$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 30c | 525.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 10c | 513$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…eca7backed No | 28c | 505.52$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…c6cabacked No | 58c | 504.2$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 72c | 501.55$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…4145backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…806bbacked Yes | 75c | 500$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?this page
- Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Football.Fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.