TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Football.Fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3e9…63d0backed No70c4,804$3,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.1617859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes29c4,096$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.112669.2%18 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+36.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xda50…2a41backed Yes10c3,198$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.69616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes7c2,931$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.937514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,499$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.49932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9230…1f7bbacked Yes20c2,341$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a8…c599backed Yes20c2,309$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8156…532bbacked Yes17c1,682$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed65…ce13backed Yes3c1,419$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.231323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid+15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2637…1746backed Yes17c1,118$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes34c1,098$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.332133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes4c1,096$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4510320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7116…b487backed No63c1,051$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb8…902abacked Yes4c1,026$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-28.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb79…a708backed Yes18c962$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3a1…30e6backed Yes3c897.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…06fcbacked Yes17c854$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d06…0789backed Yes18c846$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c820$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc068…e871backed No80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d45…a049backed Yes18c792$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae16…73c6backed No80c790$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1582100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a90…3529backed No80c780$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…e79abacked No80c770$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…04aabacked No80c760$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1522100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c0…64ecbacked No80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…9e86backed Yes18c744$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes6c736.11$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5515…b067backed Yes18c719$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14e2…0eb2backed Yes18c692$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54b8…a159backed Yes17c651$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cff…2349backed No78c645.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.36per pick48cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75d0…46f6backed Yes8c633.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a3…c8b8backed Yes4c485$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes25c453.65$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.031258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1a…d191backed Yes34c399.85$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes3c359.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.875225%13 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes5c324.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.273020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+287.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a9…badbbacked Yes17c268$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4385…5a83backed Yes5c266.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5b…5fa6backed Yes17c257$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc916…e32ebacked No75c243.09$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.772321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x935c…b84dbacked Yes7c231.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb6…be14backed Yes17c222$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0839…8e8fbacked Yes17c220$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e86…f679backed Yes18c214$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad64…7010backed Yes17c202$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea6…3525backed Yes17c202$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes31c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.371681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick48cpaid+113.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0b97…0efebacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a03…4601backed Yes61c196.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c88…d220backed Yes17c195$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes25c194.08$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.847663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ba…7118backed Yes16c188$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca3…dd9fbacked Yes17c187$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa992…524dbacked Yes17c186$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e71…1c89backed Yes17c185$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29fc…dd5abacked Yes17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c16…45b2backed Yes17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a7…5b3abacked Yes17c176$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aba…7d70backed Yes17c175$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77f…88fcbacked Yes17c174$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5643…9705backed Yes17c174$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e3…2650backed Yes18c174$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f71…b154backed Yes17c173$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fe…cb58backed Yes17c173$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9117…de54backed Yes17c172$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4f…c402backed Yes18c171$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ee…e77fbacked Yes16c171$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1e9…7b29backed Yes17c171$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…9985backed Yes42c170$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.91662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e17…d644backed Yes17c169$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f3…0d0ebacked Yes17c169$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c3…4918backed Yes16c168$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe800…0906backed Yes17c168$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7930…6f54backed Yes18c167$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2306…a666backed Yes16c166$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc78…4ef5backed Yes17c165$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45bf…8c33backed Yes17c165$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc01…c68ebacked Yes17c163$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe7…9563backed Yes41c161.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+296.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c5…f904backed Yes17c161$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e17…2929backed Yes19c160$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b7…e8a3backed Yes19c160$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes18c159$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.624617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb857…fe74backed Yes17c159$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc52…728ebacked Yes17c158$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fc…1956backed Yes17c158$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d9…2798backed Yes17c153$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc797…0121backed Yes17c151$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ad…46fcbacked No59c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbed…e4a9backed Yes11c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-84.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bec…fa17backed No70c137.82$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04fc…0e31backed No74c134.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No76c105.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.385152.9%27 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x483d…0592backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8271…900bbacked Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9259…2bf9backed Yes39c65.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.461040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5821240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No77c57.7$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.446320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.