Token Launches · resolved market
Football.Fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfbb92ccf23c18e620b76a407719b1925cb6a0ee79c8427eed5803ac4645fcfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 70c | 4,804$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.16 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 29c | 4,096$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.11 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…2a41backed Yes | 10c | 3,198$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 7c | 2,931$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.93 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,499$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…1f7bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,341$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a8…c599backed Yes | 20c | 2,309$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…532bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,682$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…ce13backed Yes | 3c | 1,419$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…1746backed Yes | 17c | 1,118$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,098$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,096$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…b487backed No | 63c | 1,051$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 4c | 1,026$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb79…a708backed Yes | 18c | 962$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a1…30e6backed Yes | 3c | 897.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…06fcbacked Yes | 17c | 854$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d06…0789backed Yes | 18c | 846$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 820$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc068…e871backed No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…a049backed Yes | 18c | 792$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae16…73c6backed No | 80c | 790$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a90…3529backed No | 80c | 780$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…e79abacked No | 80c | 770$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…04aabacked No | 80c | 760$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…64ecbacked No | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…9e86backed Yes | 18c | 744$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 6c | 736.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…b067backed Yes | 18c | 719$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…0eb2backed Yes | 18c | 692$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b8…a159backed Yes | 17c | 651$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…2349backed No | 78c | 645.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…46f6backed Yes | 8c | 633.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…c8b8backed Yes | 4c | 485$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 25c | 453.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…d191backed Yes | 34c | 399.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 359.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 5c | 324.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…badbbacked Yes | 17c | 268$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…5a83backed Yes | 5c | 266.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…5fa6backed Yes | 17c | 257$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked No | 75c | 243.09$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…b84dbacked Yes | 7c | 231.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…be14backed Yes | 17c | 222$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0839…8e8fbacked Yes | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e86…f679backed Yes | 18c | 214$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…7010backed Yes | 17c | 202$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…3525backed Yes | 17c | 202$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a03…4601backed Yes | 61c | 196.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c88…d220backed Yes | 17c | 195$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 194.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…7118backed Yes | 16c | 188$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…dd9fbacked Yes | 17c | 187$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa992…524dbacked Yes | 17c | 186$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e71…1c89backed Yes | 17c | 185$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…dd5abacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…45b2backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…5b3abacked Yes | 17c | 176$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…7d70backed Yes | 17c | 175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77f…88fcbacked Yes | 17c | 174$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…9705backed Yes | 17c | 174$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…2650backed Yes | 18c | 174$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…b154backed Yes | 17c | 173$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…cb58backed Yes | 17c | 173$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9117…de54backed Yes | 17c | 172$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4f…c402backed Yes | 18c | 171$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ee…e77fbacked Yes | 16c | 171$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…7b29backed Yes | 17c | 171$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…9985backed Yes | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…d644backed Yes | 17c | 169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…0d0ebacked Yes | 17c | 169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…4918backed Yes | 16c | 168$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe800…0906backed Yes | 17c | 168$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…6f54backed Yes | 18c | 167$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2306…a666backed Yes | 16c | 166$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…4ef5backed Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45bf…8c33backed Yes | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…c68ebacked Yes | 17c | 163$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 41c | 161.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +296.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…f904backed Yes | 17c | 161$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e17…2929backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b7…e8a3backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 159$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…fe74backed Yes | 17c | 159$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc52…728ebacked Yes | 17c | 158$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fc…1956backed Yes | 17c | 158$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d9…2798backed Yes | 17c | 153$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…0121backed Yes | 17c | 151$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked No | 59c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…e4a9backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…fa17backed No | 70c | 137.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…0e31backed No | 74c | 134.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 76c | 105.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…0592backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…900bbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…2bf9backed Yes | 39c | 65.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 57.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Football.Fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Football.Fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.