Token Launches · resolved market
Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x383086c247516bbf4c668795d9b4d2c589b40e1c386f06d0057d1e9e1f5f9a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 9c | 5,983$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.55 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…533abacked Yes | 10c | 5,059$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…2a41backed Yes | 16c | 4,814$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 28c | 1,600$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 78c | 1,295$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.28 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 75c | 1,102$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…3c96backed Yes | 22c | 1,074$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 21c | 1,025$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.77 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…8d20backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +305.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cb…5f05backed Yes | 10c | 999.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 7c | 903.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…f064backed Yes | 12c | 868.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…2fe8backed No | 78c | 800.49$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 79c | 629.07$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…db2bbacked Yes | 22c | 461.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…e7fabacked Yes | 4c | 396.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 22c | 332.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 292.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked No | 70c | 228.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…4df5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9328…3b18backed No | 79c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 23c | 170.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5698…6911backed Yes | 9c | 136.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebd…0655backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61a…38e5backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…349cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 13c | 98.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 12c | 97.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 17c | 92.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed No | 77c | 89.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…ff5ebacked No | 79c | 84.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcc…8146backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Football.Fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.