Token Launches · resolved market
Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05584f108882cc21adba42528b2bd8722bdce8edb8cb2f5b49ce5158b3f6284e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 4c | 3,602$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 9c | 2,700$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…2a41backed Yes | 9c | 975.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 8c | 773.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed Yes | 8c | 755.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 7c | 558.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 8c | 500.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…db2bbacked Yes | 7c | 286.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 8c | 279$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 12c | 154.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Football.Fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.