TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$250,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5a40…4093backed No31c8,117$2,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.585453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bc3…8548backed No16c7,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1203330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda50…2a41backed Yes44c6,783$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,785.18616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes67c6,274$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.637545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed No32c6,075$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.684238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1f…fcc0backed No33c5,854$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed Yes62c5,701$3,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.873740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b0c…7992backed Yes66c5,000$3,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed No29c4,969$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.086127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes60c4,765$2,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.524257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d0…af08backed Yes34c4,694$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,095.283333.3%11 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x695d…d0abbacked Yes67c4,666$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed Yes46c4,508$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.4619543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9a…467bbacked No52c4,090$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1264129.3%12 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No40c3,911$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.944632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked No35c3,484$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.415347.2%25 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No49c3,397$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.3520551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b2…089abacked Yes48c3,283$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd0…41a1backed No34c3,235$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1111…ca23backed Yes35c2,900$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8853256.3%18 W · 14 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+26.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Yes57c2,780$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.521747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No65c2,662$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.652147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1331…a406backed No58c2,660$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…db2bbacked Yes66c2,519$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cff…2349backed No30c2,500$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.36per pick48cpaid-83.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No49c2,412$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.695225%13 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c2,312$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.882333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No50c2,282$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.174742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3aa…36e5backed Yes74c2,039$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed No48c2,007$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.831421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-50.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5802123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1edd…be0fbacked No35c1,952$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.582218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed No51c1,948$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.412520%5 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x296d…70f9backed No45c1,913$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.145743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No46c1,912$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.057234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes42c1,892$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.5810763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20cd…5634backed Yes71c1,800$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.091546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x064f…ff5abacked Yes71c1,776$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.241040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9227…4df5backed No49c1,769$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.456222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No17c1,718$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9915539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d0…46f6backed Yes70c1,710$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.82339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed Yes65c1,625$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.651154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No52c1,505$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.419747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61a…38e5backed No28c1,505$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeef…3186backed Yes79c1,500$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad1…7534backed No29c1,495$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed No39c1,474$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.032343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No60c1,443$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.7515362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf604…36b3backed Yes64c1,428$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.53033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e0…eccdbacked Yes62c1,331$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed No68c1,325$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed No34c1,249$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.594528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes61c1,229$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.119942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes53c1,196$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.1715637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe6…9b73backed No46c1,192$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.262740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked No32c1,177$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.571926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes52c1,137$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.899422.3%21 W · 73 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No40c1,123$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.489645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa85f…ac2bbacked No24c1,080$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.512657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x553a…177fbacked Yes29c1,051$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.683935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No65c1,039$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.4817859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x63ba…5e49backed No33c1,032$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…d43fbacked Yes74c999.73$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.932552%13 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed No58c988.42$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.35127.5%14 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffaf…2c7bbacked No41c983.46$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a4…72adbacked No67c952.64$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ff…772cbacked No50c884$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.874030%12 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…72a9backed No41c856.81$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.272748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No59c845.69$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0a4…ca01backed Yes65c812.75$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed No62c790$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.83256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10cb…5f05backed Yes67c789.51$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.54650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e10…c928backed No26c770$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No45c763.15$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.347546.7%35 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1528…19adbacked Yes61c759.59$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+128.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc639…d483backed Yes40c754.48$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.481241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No27c753.76$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.912917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd688…1059backed No40c735$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9792…5274backed No31c698.34$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda9d…226cbacked No31c694.04$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.382317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c35…370abacked No54c669.8$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.31723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9bb…fef3backed No16c654.5$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…eb9bbacked Yes44c646.81$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.815100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+140.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No47c625.77$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.7914141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No69c611.83$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.822441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x151d…4497backed No55c600.05$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.465347.2%25 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2167514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a4…1ebebacked Yes50c599$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e32…e723backed No66c586$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes64c584.74$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.613054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed No31c575.9$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.031915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No41c566.87$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.78528.2%24 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3488…54c2backed Yes35c559.65$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.1511100%11 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+58.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No22c525.58$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6312840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No26c524$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.245240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x194b…41b4backed No38c523.85$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e13…a14cbacked Yes55c522.67$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a0…e5f6backed No19c518.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No44c503.35$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6717948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6581…0206backed Yes28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3602045%9 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.