TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbbed…e4a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-84.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.77
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.05
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$22.55
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$49.08
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.2
Football.Fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15.99
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+57.2%+$208.7
Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.89
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$21.6
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.91
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.39
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$239.88
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25%+$5.4
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.7%+$7.9
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Pelicansbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+25%+$5
Heat vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+66.7%+$66.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+37.9%+$27.05
Lions vs. Bearsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+31.6%+$6.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$67.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$9.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+26.6%+$16.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 President’s Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$50.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$30.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.