TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Lions, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$714,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$790,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $714,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 570 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4cc3…7552backed Bears24c127,552$30,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,662.4225137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x575d…0cedbacked Lions77c77,459$59,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,059.961782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e6…cc3abacked Lions76c59,393$45,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,150.761070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Bears24c52,078$12,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,469.59732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Bears24c44,999$10,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,869.8132438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Bears25c40,343$10,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,049.5127339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Bears24c27,479$6,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,533.337041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bears11c27,037$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.820634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Lions75c22,713$17,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,614.493976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Bears23c21,528$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.644246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked Bears24c18,877$4,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,463.3521251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Lions76c16,976$12,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1245472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Bears24c15,794$3,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,740.629645.8%44 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lions77c15,757$12,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,632.1319864.6%128 W · 70 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Bears23c13,995$3,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,237.731769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Bears24c12,500$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.967042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bears10c10,307$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.5860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Lions77c10,000$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3006233.9%21 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…b3c5backed Bears25c9,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b26…8640backed Lions76c6,800$5,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6471855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Lions76c6,578$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.619952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Lions77c6,500$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5103568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Bears24c6,225$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.1813430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa5b…824abacked Lions76c5,229$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.988100%8 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Bears23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15014837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Lions75c5,000$3,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9910768.2%73 W · 34 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc68a…0e4abacked Bears26c4,935$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Lions76c4,582$3,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.581580%12 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+35.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Lions76c4,500$3,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07530446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Lions74c4,447$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.129259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Bears19c4,297$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.922638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb94…d871backed Lions75c4,256$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0643265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac1…45dbbacked Lions76c4,079$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.957754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…0b03backed Bears25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed Lions76c3,960$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.524245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bears24c3,940$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.639754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bears26c3,846$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed Bears25c3,819$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.643426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Bears21c3,569$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.8814022.9%32 W · 108 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed Bears5c3,452$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.53743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked Bears25c3,373$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.345424.1%13 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd42…3d0cbacked Lions75c3,333$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6b…1262backed Lions76c3,158$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.892157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed Lions75c3,080$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.952360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Bears25c3,006$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.3611738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcede…d9ebbacked Lions76c2,775$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.073764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Lions77c2,597$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.421454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Lions75c2,500$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62516259.9%97 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Bears25c2,286$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.161838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…5d34backed Lions77c2,178$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick61cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Bears24c2,178$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.0819543.6%85 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ea…3ab2backed Lions76c2,130$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.26887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick70cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c6…5a68backed Bears25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d31…2cbfbacked Lions76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89d0…2368backed Bears25c1,976$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf11f…ccbabacked Lions76c1,647$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.372572%18 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Bears24c1,500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36510624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lions76c1,500$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36017558.9%103 W · 72 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8eb…c973backed Lions75c1,465$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Lions75c1,361$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.183661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bears2c1,332$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.864311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcac2…d644backed Lions76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.791662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62de…9ea7backed Lions76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Lions76c1,298$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.5214750.3%74 W · 73 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ed5…a76ebacked Lions76c1,118$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.424772.3%34 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ec…2271backed Lions76c1,111$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.722458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked Lions76c1,095$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1920733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Bears25c1,017$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.231540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lions79c1,000$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lions76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24038459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d53…0644backed Lions76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b23…8278backed Lions76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2406758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Lions76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a5…2da4backed Bears24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Bears26c905.4$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x068b…9301backed Lions76c886.9$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.861283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb3…f525backed Lions76c854.3$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.31250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Bears10c852.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4152828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf51…2037backed Bears24c799.89$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.972030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e3…83d2backed Bears26c769.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0a…e4eabacked Lions76c746.05$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.055766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e38…ec7bbacked Lions77c737.89$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.72683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9320…f7d7backed Bears25c734$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed Lions76c723.68$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed Bears25c676.05$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.014032.5%13 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6586…c69cbacked Bears25c660.04$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bce…558cbacked Lions76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8916275.3%122 W · 40 L+17.3wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39ae…0268backed Lions76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.893554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff71…5e07backed Lions76c656.97$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+122%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbef…c32bbacked Lions77c645.93$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.08887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Lions79c597.56$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5612760.6%77 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x902c…50dcbacked Lions76c557.24$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.741154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+58.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d1…9fabbacked Bears5c550$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd829…3fc4backed Lions76c530.74$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.382588%22 W · 3 L+6.1wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+37.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Lions76c526.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3212249.2%60 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe483…b5a0backed Lions76c526.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3213453.7%72 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab8…7883backed Bears8c518.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Bears24c509.66$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3110842.6%46 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…0194backed Lions75c508.13$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.03757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Bears25c503.35$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8415453.9%83 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.