Earnings · resolved market
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81b113d08d679970a060495e58d1a1ce9f2fdb3933f36b0533d33bdcfef9c6b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 7c | 3,539$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290.99 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 709.52$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 698.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 42c | 666.76$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.68 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 19c | 494.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 485.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 12c | 466.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 41c | 441.27$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.83 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 23c | 299.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 69c | 239.13$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 54c | 185.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 170.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 19c | 170$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed No | 16c | 144.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…b971backed Yes | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 31c | 92.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…8231backed Yes | 56c | 83.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 52c | 61.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 68c | 59.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked No | 34c | 56.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…0195backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…e4a9backed Yes | 68c | 37.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…01d6backed Yes | 77c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8589…6292backed Yes | 77c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…d195backed Yes | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6346…7c71backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5557…4a70backed Yes | 80c | 24.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…a146backed Yes | 77c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…54ebbacked Yes | 80c | 19.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…3c15backed Yes | 80c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…3658backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.