TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,132

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,078 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No19c6,607$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.8176837.4%287 W · 481 L+35.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd21…f7acbacked Yes79c2,597$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…8a09backed No21c2,537$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No19c2,513$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.055719.3%11 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4230…252ebacked Yes78c1,939$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+157.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed No1c1,608$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed82…8fcbbacked Yes80c1,247$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.4475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed No28c1,214$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.156867.6%46 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No6c1,211$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.412420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+18.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7d7a…e192backed Yes73c799.83$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No38c399.96$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9967642.9%290 W · 386 L-36.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbed…e4a9backed Yes63c399.02$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No30c380.07$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6420331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No21c371.43$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.652520%5 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked No23c329.13$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.487121.1%15 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7f…fe62backed Yes62c322.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…9a59backed No38c285.17$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.241050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No15c250$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.535635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff4b…fd3ebacked No6c249.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked No5c244.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6d…a7b2backed No23c242.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d4…d296backed No25c200.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb102…c73dbacked No39c199.62$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.417731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed No40c194.17$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.21353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed No34c192.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.618129.6%24 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes77c184.49$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.931573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x980a…bb1bbacked No38c180.29$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.61855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…2019backed No21c170.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3117441.4%72 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No39c166.36$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3831629.4%93 W · 223 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470d…b463backed No31c164.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.587561.3%46 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc7…4923backed No42c160$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8412…31ddbacked Yes58c160$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.734845.8%22 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No19c151.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.395038%19 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc9…4413backed No26c146.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…5075backed No28c142.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f5…bb7abacked No42c140$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…0075backed Yes58c140$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No26c131.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7546414.2%66 W · 398 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes68c125.16$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5615765%102 W · 55 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes62c125$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.521861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c123$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2858239%227 W · 355 L-25.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed No15c119.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No39c113.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6613960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23ca…9ae6backed No20c111.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.229866.3%65 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d9…087fbacked Yes66c106.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.61785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+70.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2d…1341backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac58…39a8backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3530615%46 W · 260 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a0a…9229backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4111566.1%76 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No42c91.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5211831.4%37 W · 81 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6129024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes58c82.73$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7521357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.974746.8%22 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbb3…3658backed No35c76.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5780…dd00backed Yes63c64.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.542462.5%15 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes58c62.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4311723.1%27 W · 90 L-18.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3b90…0f10backed No43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff2…51e4backed No44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc330…9794backed No37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No34c50.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a45…1b50backed No38c50.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x464a…4aa5backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+167.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b9…52b0backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…7014backed Yes63c49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…9074backed No47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b97…36b7backed No48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208772.4%63 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3734…4323backed Yes66c40.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72556%14 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked No33c35.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8717137.4%64 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed Yes76c34.06$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes59c29.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.051020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd4c…89aebacked Yes64c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b1…6a6dbacked Yes65c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…023dbacked Yes66c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3269…011dbacked Yes65c27.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a42…cdf1backed Yes66c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf812…2c07backed Yes66c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x136d…6858backed Yes62c26.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de5…ff70backed Yes66c26.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…93a8backed Yes68c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x321e…516abacked Yes67c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa582…38ffbacked Yes64c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…45cabacked Yes63c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab48…05fbbacked Yes66c25.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeccd…bb86backed Yes64c25.73$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes70c25.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.442070%14 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77d9…941abacked Yes61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+163%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x020b…ef56backed Yes65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x211f…8e0fbacked No47c23.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117358.9%43 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5c…43fbbacked Yes62c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…50b5backed Yes66c22.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6346…7c71backed Yes67c22.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.391877.8%14 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8278…ef14backed Yes65c22.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.812166.7%14 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x413d…0db8backed Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.31457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x418f…7b8fbacked Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67c0…93efbacked Yes66c17.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.