TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes32c2,079$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.9813040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No63c1,505$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.6312923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed No55c1,429$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.42665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked No64c1,138$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.761866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+123%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes23c1,132$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7348236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes36c1,125$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.52227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes44c1,112$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.644542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked Yes34c1,072$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.481435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed No66c1,023$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes35c1,009$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes38c998$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.242142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No62c989$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.551656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes39c988$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.321741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No61c974$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.862846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes48c972$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.161631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No64c949$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.641145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d6…358fbacked No64c942$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed Yes37c936$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.32862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+102.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed No62c927$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.462030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed Yes38c877$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.261127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed No62c852$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.761353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No64c846$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.062941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No62c839$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.822055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes38c838$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.442055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed No55c817$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.65977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No62c813$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.832450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes51c809.06$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.621729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes15c791.09$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.847125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…ab94backed Yes35c791$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes13c778$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7624634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes38c773$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.741250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed No48c749$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.482152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes38c717$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.371625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes38c716$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.081643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed No62c714$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.32850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…f7eabacked No65c697$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes50c654.1$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.933138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed No54c648$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.881741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d2…6698backed Yes35c637$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.951030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No51c626$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.23748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked Yes38c626$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.88922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked No62c626$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.881625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes38c623$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.744334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed Yes38c616$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.281540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked Yes36c616$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864a…9ed1backed Yes36c611$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.96742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…6411backed No64c611$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick34cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed No62c609$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes35c606$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.12254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes41c597$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.771947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes38c588$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x130f…fc43backed Yes52c581$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1260%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes35c579$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.65922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes39c576$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.393253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed No62c567$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.71060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+64.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11e9…8e90backed No63c557$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8e…9be8backed No63c553$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes49c544$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.563432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No62c543$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.343141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes49c537$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.133243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No62c537$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.062646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed No59c536$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.761266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+90.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes38c535$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.832832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No50c528$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.062254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes48c516$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.122857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd188…d310backed Yes39c513.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+143.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes34c501.93$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.25726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed Yes45c491$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.952236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked No65c487$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.451040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed No51c484$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.162339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes12c479.44$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.17135.2%25 W · 46 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed Yes35c470$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes44c458$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.522466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No55c435$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.463141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes49c434$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.662540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed No61c432$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.611136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No52c430$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.953351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed No51c425$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.251675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes33c424.9$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.392536%9 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No64c413$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.684025%10 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes36c413$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.682733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes50c413$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.52450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked No62c411$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.182035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked No62c408$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae4…d837backed No65c406$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.11258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes38c404$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No55c391$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.953652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes37c387$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.591323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b2e…fe02backed No64c384$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.241428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4628…ee62backed Yes38c382$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.161233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No56c379$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.762045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No60c372.87$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.228528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes10c370$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.491625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa1…827bbacked No65c370$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed No62c368.61$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.071353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No61c368$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.522347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes27c364$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0412539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes47c360$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.22161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked No63c338$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.061656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes47c338$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.573938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.