Movies · resolved market

Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5cb4be19b6e3a375d1a844f46261cdd484ff5f47a3b9d1cfaa31b6c34537aea

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $73,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $70,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,236 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No	14c	4,348$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.97	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No	0c	3,779$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	111	4.5%5 W · 106 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No	9c	2,248$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.5	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No	10c	1,811$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.1	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	19c	1,727$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x966a…6d73backed No	3c	1,371$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	43cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed No	10c	1,223$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.54	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	3c	1,092$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.66	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed Yes	47c	1,087$515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571.42	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc315…6411backed No	9c	953$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.77	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	34cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked No	10c	921$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.1	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No	9c	897$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.73	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed No	10c	863$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.3	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	27cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes	50c	837$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.81	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed No	9c	715$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No	10c	701$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.1	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	18c	632$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.04	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed No	52c	622$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.1	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	54c	611$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.61	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	13c	600.8$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.12	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	41c	569.85$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.14	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked No	9c	518$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.62	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68f…3d74backed No	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No	10c	490$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes	51c	439$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.11	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes	16c	393.5$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.05	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes	41c	364.1$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.82	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	44c	362$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.28	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes	52c	342$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.16	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No	61c	337$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.9	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No	9c	333$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes	23c	326$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.5	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	9c	320.33$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.33	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No	49c	311$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.39	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed No	72c	309$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.15	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No	4c	302.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes	77c	300$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.87	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes	34c	291$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.36	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No	49c	266$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.34	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes	51c	260$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.4	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No	49c	255$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.95	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0ec1backed No	10c	248$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked No	10c	248$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No	72c	240$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.1	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd188…d310backed Yes	43c	235.28$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.28	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+143.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No	10c	231$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	37cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed No	53c	225$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.25	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-5.3wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No	59c	219$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.21	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+97.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	8c	218.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No	9c	207$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed No	10c	207$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No	19c	204$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.14	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes	49c	195.17$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.54	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed No	36c	195$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.72	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No	47c	193$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.71	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes	51c	192$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.08	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed No	9c	189$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed No	41c	181$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.06	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	63c	176$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.37	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No	49c	176$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.24	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No	52c	174$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.72	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed No	49c	170$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.74	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No	59c	160$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.4	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes	14c	157$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.02	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed No	35c	156$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.18	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No	10c	153$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0af…7ec6backed No	10c	148$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No	10c	147$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes	51c	147$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.03	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No	49c	146$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.52	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-44%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes	64c	146$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.56	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadd8…8f4bbacked No	35c	141$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.22	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed No	10c	140$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef6d…e751backed Yes	72c	138$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.05	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed Yes	15c	133$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.05	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed Yes	44c	133$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.14	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes	56c	130$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.2	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes	65c	128$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No	9c	125$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes	42c	124$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.92	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa55b…857bbacked Yes	59c	122$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.02	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked No	10c	114$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No	57c	110.54$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.8	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x358d…7602backed Yes	59c	109$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.69	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed No	50c	107$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.5	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed No	48c	107$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.36	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed Yes	48c	98.67$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.75	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes	69c	94$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.2	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-3.7wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No	18c	94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.62	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+65%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xab07…7763backed Yes	41c	90$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.1	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes	50c	90$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	53c	89.74$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.18	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No	48c	85$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes	51c	80.1$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.25	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34da…4656backed Yes	47c	80$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.4	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+77.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked No	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes	40c	79$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.4	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event