Movies · resolved market

Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7bd3b4f8e7d664fdb51f5ee6b244c883e458f26bec446516f550875c0d8494

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,358 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed No	30c	4,415$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.37	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	12c	3,444$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.66	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	1c	3,011$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.11	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.20per pick	23cpaid	+335.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	58c	2,881$1,681 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200.8	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes	60c	1,500$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	27c	1,488$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.67	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa692…8ec9backed Yes	74c	1,445$1,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.7	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	41c	1,387$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.05	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No	45c	1,375$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.32	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	36c	1,262$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.06	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed No	21c	1,189$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.58	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No	10c	1,152$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.2	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No	14c	1,071$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.94	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+8.8wins	+0.13per pick	28cpaid	+68.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	39c	1,016$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.6	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes	72c	1,010$727 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.8	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked No	29c	997$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.86	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes	74c	911$674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	46cpaid	-73%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes	71c	903$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.87	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed No	31c	868$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.08	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes	72c	858$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.24	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked No	9c	842$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	57c	785$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.71	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	14c	777$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.24	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes	71c	769$547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.74	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	34c	754$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.89	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed No	28c	747.62$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.33	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked No	29c	697$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.13	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed Yes	69c	691$477 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.21	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes	71c	650$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.5	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc7…8211backed No	9c	646$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	66c	643.98$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.46	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed Yes	73c	633$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.91	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No	28c	624$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.72	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes	72c	612$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.36	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed No	11c	604$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.44	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No	26c	602$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.52	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.16per pick	41cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No	29c	601$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.29	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3024…0c79backed Yes	71c	589$418 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.81	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed No	26c	581$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.06	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No	29c	578$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.62	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	16c	542$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.93	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No	9c	524$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.16	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes	78c	524$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.38	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	63c	516.53$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.8	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No	26c	505$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.3	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No	27c	499$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.73	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No	29c	489$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.81	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed Yes	71c	475$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.75	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed No	29c	470$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.3	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed Yes	74c	461$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.86	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed Yes	71c	458$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.82	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No	9c	453$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.77	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No	28c	448$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.44	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No	29c	435$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.15	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed No	26c	422$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.72	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.24per pick	47cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes	74c	422$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.72	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	41c	400$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	162	37.7%61 W · 101 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked No	29c	374$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.38	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No	36c	363.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.25	125	39.2%49 W · 76 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed Yes	74c	355$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.3	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No	9c	312.1$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.41	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x668b…3884backed Yes	72c	312$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.36	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	35c	306.28$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.37	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b29…716fbacked Yes	73c	300$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+36%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes	65c	291.49$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.91	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…b7d3backed No	26c	289$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.14	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa749…6a65backed No	29c	282$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.78	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No	29c	274$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.46	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes	71c	273$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.17	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No	26c	262$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.12	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes	70c	260.89$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.27	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes	71c	258$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.82	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No	29c	258$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.82	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	67c	252.53$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.7	231	30.3%70 W · 161 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35d2…6698backed No	26c	252$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.52	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No	29c	242$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.18	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes	71c	242$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.18	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked No	9c	239$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.51	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No	9c	235$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed No	29c	233$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.57	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-44%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes	71c	228$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.12	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed No	29c	216$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.64	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked Yes	69c	213$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.03	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No	27c	206.12$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No	28c	204$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.12	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	43c	200$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes	57c	200$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86	34	73.5%25 W · 9 L	+4.4wins	+0.13per pick	61cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No	56c	200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed Yes	49c	195$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.26	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked No	31c	195$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.26	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.19per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes	66c	194$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.5	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-4.0wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	71c	189.45$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.94	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes	74c	186$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.36	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes	70c	184$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.2	131	50.4%66 W · 65 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes	71c	184$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.36	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No	32c	181$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.84	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	41c	180$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.8	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No	9c	179$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No	29c	173$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.17	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event