Movies · resolved market
Will Kate Hudson be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb573865dafb3862f6f3e798190061b40a52194f6ef4fc7c4d01a2d58e43574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 38c | 2,273$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.83 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 63c | 1,198$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.61 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 58c | 637.2$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.58 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 37c | 422$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.3 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 56c | 324.49$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 61c | 299.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…4dd4backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 32c | 189$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 39c | 145$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Yes | 42c | 142.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 63c | 136.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…64e3backed No | 61c | 135$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 70.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…74dabacked No | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e7…4450backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…a6cdbacked No | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…19f5backed No | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 62c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kate Hudson be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Eva Victor be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessica Lange be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jessie Buckley be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jodie Comer be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Julia Roberts be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will June Squibb be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Lucy Liu be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.