TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6cc8…05b5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Movies, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 58 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT3473.5%25 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$69.76
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$159.97
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$329.67
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+126.3%+$164.13
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38%+$112.77
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$652Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$175.76
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+116%+$115.98
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$78.01
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+138.6%+$194.03
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$28.94
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$42.58
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+201.3%+$224.86
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+47.9%+$38.34
Will "Pillion" win Outstanding Debut at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will "Frankenstein" win Best Production Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+77.6%+$54.33
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$123
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$86
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$181.83
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$523.02
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+81.5%+$162.92
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+97.9%+$293.77
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+66.8%+$133.65
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+79.1%+$375.28
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
Will Zohran Mamdani win all 5 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+38.9%+$101.11
All 13 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-76.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick26cpaid+116.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$59.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.7%+$41.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+88.7%+$44.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+33.2%+$33.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.