TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$255,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$290,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,923 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes71c34,799$24,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,930.761450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+95.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No28c26,680$7,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,481.75922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+215.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No28c17,787$5,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,029.0815150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Yes74c14,170$10,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,753.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes74c11,648$8,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,028.76378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No15c8,805$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.1914729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes73c8,000$5,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No28c7,950$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.4914356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No27c7,604$2,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.435350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No30c7,388$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.692646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed Yes72c5,174$3,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.71040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No11c3,764$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.339035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No15c3,686$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.038042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes70c3,000$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8901172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No15c2,962$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.0334333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No28c2,777$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.434835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No26c2,636$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.231020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b2d…f0d4backed Yes75c2,359$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.677100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No25c2,295$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.0610245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes70c2,222$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.61650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes74c2,093$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.8213625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed Yes75c2,075$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No27c2,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5303743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed Yes71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa075…3f32backed Yes74c1,670$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No22c1,502$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.822025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No25c1,447$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.084949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes71c1,431$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.521376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes79c1,410$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.087534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No20c1,234$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5324831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c1,173$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0110340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No27c1,161$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.75244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fd…bfbdbacked Yes71c1,160$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No27c1,055$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.434841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed No29c1,019$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003348.5%16 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No27c1,002$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.615135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No19c972.62$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4815431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes74c972.08$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.863237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No25c969$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8313143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3872…bb1dbacked No18c948.88$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x598e…9d4fbacked Yes75c937.33$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815a…af37backed No17c929.24$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.971643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed No18c920.23$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4222948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf29d…add3backed Yes70c912.28$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No17c880$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes77c781.79$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.831369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No27c748.71$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.366036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77fb…266cbacked No28c722.09$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes78c667.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.873630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No20c662.79$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.634940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes77c660$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde4…6109backed Yes71c638.48$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No16c599.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.998234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No20c580.61$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9310739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No15c579.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8518041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No28c566.06$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.544940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd65c…502fbacked Yes71c559.68$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.531266.7%8 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9183…c349backed Yes72c555.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.723100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x751a…746dbacked Yes72c555.55$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.55785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Yes71c555.2$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.042360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No27c543.58$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.015244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes77c543.07$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.071070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No26c539.44$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.324847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c526.55$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2518237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No26c508.89$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.274942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae1…89bdbacked Yes73c505.57$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.73683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13531534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed No15c500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe0…32cdbacked Yes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5822…8774backed Yes72c496.79$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.211369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a65…a3debacked Yes71c495.92$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.821758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No23c453.58$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5617140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.573661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No23c406.01$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.381723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c402.01$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7333238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1206636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…5934backed Yes72c399.2$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.111471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No26c375.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.075137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41a3…46b8backed No20c367.61$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No24c360.92$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9310034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No26c359.18$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.859147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No27c350.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.135139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No17c348.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.996826.5%18 W · 50 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes73c342.47$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.473145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes76c321$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.624433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd07…ce86backed Yes75c305.13$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.285100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.844143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed No29c295.38$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.664544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes80c290$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed No14c282.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.611957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes75c265$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No29c232.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9749511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No30c229.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.852927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes60c224.84$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.155747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No8c223.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.