TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe32b…626e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT2025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.58
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.82
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+166.9%+$194.16
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.54
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$655Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$655.13
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+150.7%+$273.36
Will Rick Brattin be the MO-05 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.26
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$639.83
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.38
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.01
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.49
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$742.56
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$731.02
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$748Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$748.3
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$37.81
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$1,593.24
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.11
Will Ammar Campa-Najjar advance from the CA-48 primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$93.25
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.35
Will Colin Sutton win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.21
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$632.75
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$708Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+202.3%+$1,432.12
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.67
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.88
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+410.8%+$1,961.47
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+266%+$90.12
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+282.5%+$1,550.97
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$747Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$747
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$470.69
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$701.29
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$652Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$652
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$733Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$733.44
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+98.3%+$340.23
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,552Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,551.84
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.01
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.3
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.58
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.46
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$693Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$693.03
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+142.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.