Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a4267965c6e60f8b8d3bcc06e90e329707ad13d8b6007e42ed67acde8ebab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 65c | 1,199$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.06 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 57c | 486.59$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.73 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 31c | 359.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.05 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 40c | 353$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.38 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 36c | 350.27$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 48c | 276.41$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.43 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 41c | 230.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 62c | 195.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked No | 28c | 187$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 178$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 28c | 177$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 48c | 169.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 162.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 72c | 147.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 39c | 123.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 60c | 119.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 35c | 118.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 112.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…505abacked No | 27c | 111.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 77c | 110.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 64c | 100.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed No | 67c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…a33bbacked Yes | 76c | 95.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 47c | 89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 40c | 86.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 48c | 79.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Yes | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…ec6ebacked Yes | 36c | 76.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 69c | 72.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…c380backed Yes | 58c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 30c | 60.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…f168backed No | 26c | 54.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 28c | 53.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 52.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 49.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 23c | 49.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 34c | 48.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 68c | 47.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…f8c9backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…5e27backed Yes | 69c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…5a2abacked No | 48c | 32.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 53c | 27.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed Yes | 40c | 26.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 75c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?this page
- Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?No won
- Will Jack Ellison be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?No won
- Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?Yes won
- Will Logan Cunningham be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?No won
- Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.