AI · resolved market
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ed44814b8fe728ee3567e4cdc0cdd3f21fdebf45ca6b79da1d899e23d47c5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 24c | 2,551$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 75c | 2,200$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.97 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed No | 79c | 1,294$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 11c | 955.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 11c | 942.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 15c | 547.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed Yes | 25c | 511$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 10c | 349.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 15c | 280$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes | 25c | 141.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 11c | 120.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 19c | 116.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…ca4cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked Yes | 11c | 97.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 76.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked Yes | 20c | 60.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +216.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 75c | 37.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?this page
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.