AI · resolved market
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154cd5068ea765e2c3e783b3eb9c207bdfeed8ce04f8d1e54a42c50bee478e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 69c | 2,171$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.18 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked Yes | 32c | 889$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 715$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc20f…ab16backed Yes | 32c | 700$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 26c | 324.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 221.58$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 44c | 215.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 75c | 211.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed No | 70c | 176.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 76c | 153.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed Yes | 80c | 132$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 33c | 128.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 41c | 112.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…fb0bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 16cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2dd4backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…ced2backed Yes | 57c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked Yes | 79c | 83.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 37c | 81.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…fef1backed No | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 33c | 62.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 59.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…5db6backed No | 75c | 52.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 47c | 46.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 46c | 45.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f250backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 41.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 31c | 39.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9457…2733backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…7397backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?this page
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.