TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x43a6…8b32

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT5470.4%38 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$837Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$250
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$619Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+95.3%+$590.51
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$654Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$303
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$398
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$50.54
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,002Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$298
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$623Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30%+$187.1
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28%+$219
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$146.95
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$150
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,287Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$379.9
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.13
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.23
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$753Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$753.33
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$54
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$792.44
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$230
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$114
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.18
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$782Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$234
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+54.5%+$93.45
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$80.05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,793Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$506.99
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,979Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$1,132.38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,060Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$940
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$195.99
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,849Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$1,130.82
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$36
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$391Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$109
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$160.63
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.98
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$838Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$838
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$720
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,850Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$650
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$168
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.92
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,384Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$1,034.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,046Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$998.28
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$909Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+36%+$327.15
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$301.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$617Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$383
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,510Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+65.6%+$990
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,010Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$389.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$120
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,188Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$1,534.83
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$416.83
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,872Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,872.15
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,112.38
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,974Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,974.34
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,628.08
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$478Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$478
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$490
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$93
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$349.18
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$163.41
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,762Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$1,238.12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,692Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,691.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$194
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,640Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$1,228.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.