TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$606,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$609,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $606,743 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 427 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes61c79,667$48,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,781.7310930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No31c57,231$17,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,862.6611734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No0c31,600$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7720624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed No1c21,583$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.723641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No24c20,645$5,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,006.2115020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c47…37e8backed No0c15,133$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.85911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-82.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No35c14,557$5,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,052.087041.4%29 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No35c13,781$4,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,777.747847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No47c11,138$5,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,188.3893840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No50c9,525$4,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,796.46233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes66c7,811$5,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.542060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed No34c7,201$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.961833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…28b1backed No30c6,604$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.12025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes68c5,569$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.874042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4907…cdc2backed No0c5,547$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+133.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes73c4,688$3,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.982653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No23c4,200$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.994542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No35c4,054$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.58637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No16c3,870$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.553036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes62c3,500$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3307244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21e8…dd36backed No1c3,207$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…aa53backed Yes66c3,203$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.43158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes64c3,141$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.351250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No22c2,956$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6627322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe8…42ccbacked Yes55c2,896$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.82347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+81.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed Yes67c2,638$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.571593.3%14 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick69cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No47c2,525$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.1711032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No28c2,510$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.428650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a8…70b3backed No7c2,500$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1691338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No28c2,376$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.942846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No24c2,347$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.48948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No31c2,287$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.6811628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae70…abfbbacked No25c2,092$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.122828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No33c2,033$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.2711921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ff3…8c08backed No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf70b…de8abacked Yes67c1,974$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.46771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No33c1,953$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.852326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00a1…8366backed Yes62c1,911$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No44c1,905$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.229745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a2c…7aadbacked No35c1,855$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.551838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-19.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7b3…eeb2backed Yes63c1,850$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.481764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…fa0ebacked Yes65c1,689$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.691471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed No40c1,510$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6103946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed No47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-54.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked No45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6753666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed No27c1,454$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.024951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes65c1,446$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.214429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab8…eb56backed No31c1,393$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.842623.1%6 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-41.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c1,385$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5424126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No37c1,343$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.1910051%51 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No32c1,295$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.4439034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c1,271$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.961,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes73c1,241$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.483943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1024…9651backed Yes64c1,235$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.041546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes51c1,230$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.231553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+84.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd211…628bbacked No38c1,193$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.263141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed No24c1,135$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.363116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2f…6b81backed No53c1,053$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.17580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa651…1fd0backed No44c1,049$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4574325.6%11 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7eaa…c549backed Yes68c1,036$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes60c1,014$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.647538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No29c1,011$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2952536%9 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3602352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8714…eeb8backed No7c1,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ab…7457backed Yes72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2cd…c187backed No58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5802373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a6…8b32backed Yes62c1,000$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3831275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed Yes72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+30.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes68c999.97$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.995070%35 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c991$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.11987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac3e…8150backed Yes72c902.72$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.954447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No48c887.4$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.942740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb237…bad8backed No52c867.55$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe90c…0d37backed No46c858.53$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfcc…12a6backed No30c827.36$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.152352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No24c823.61$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.513315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a74…4af8backed No35c777.65$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.41520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes59c757.91$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.47727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb020…92f3backed Yes67c750.67$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked No6c740.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.72488.3%4 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No6c707.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.521246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No31c702.43$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.423528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007526.7%20 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes70c686.07$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.3221015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes65c672.28$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.291764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No13c666$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.424443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed No37c651.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.742937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes62c650$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.53036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ab6…8eefbacked No38c649.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.713336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-45.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d82…a5e9backed No41c646.97$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.272343.5%10 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No22c633.09$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4723323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes66c629.39$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.996346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No38c604.44$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.45731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2388…5653backed Yes74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1566100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No49c599.99$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2926654.5%36 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes61c595.43$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.132871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c570.94$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd69…e123backed Yes72c560$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.