Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24211dc23cfc1837953bd6f39489e4825dbbad4301b59cfa95a2cd7cda4d4c5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,139 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5f…f7c5backed No | 0c | 18,730$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 8,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,935$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…2d0ebacked No | 0c | 6,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed No | 1c | 5,380$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 11cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d1ccbacked No | 0c | 4,071$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…3163backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83db…d78fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,333$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 941.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ede…e0c7backed No | 19c | 810.55$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf533…051ebacked No | 21c | 567.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…9b2ebacked Yes | 80c | 551.24$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 233.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 8c | 216.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5349…d02dbacked Yes | 60c | 148.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…04e2backed No | 71c | 141.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 19c | 122.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…bf48backed No | 20c | 102.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e5…fb20backed Yes | 80c | 79.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…c9a0backed Yes | 60c | 65.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 45c | 54.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 47c | 50.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…bf88backed Yes | 47c | 31.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1120…47bfbacked No | 59c | 26.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…6be5backed Yes | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 45c | 23.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 74c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…63bcbacked Yes | 79c | 12.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…d048backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.