Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb55db81a60e3750b05736ff9b942f82dd70a479b334410b026069db448791681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,848 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa09d…b7fdbacked No | 0c | 43,465$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked No | 15c | 22,961$3,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,509.85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…22e7backed No | 0c | 19,781$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 11,529$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…fe9dbacked No | 0c | 10,667$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e1…e05cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…46debacked No | 0c | 10,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 79c | 7,988$6,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.41 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4834…0c43backed No | 0c | 5,045$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 62c | 2,794$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.12 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked No | 5c | 2,443$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 1,543$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.06 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 12c | 1,411$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,323$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 54c | 958.77$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.03 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…4f03backed No | 16c | 872.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed No | 14c | 838.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 65c | 749.75$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.89 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed No | 42c | 654.23$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 31c | 630.34$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 3c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 4c | 471.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…01bcbacked Yes | 63c | 343.51$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2a…1860backed No | 28c | 303.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed No | 20c | 246.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…4e68backed Yes | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…1dc8backed Yes | 61c | 195$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 7c | 186.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf26…02cabacked No | 39c | 167.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…acecbacked Yes | 66c | 152.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 145.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 14c | 137.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 18c | 132$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked Yes | 79c | 130.69$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 42c | 126.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 113.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 34c | 105.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed No | 19c | 89.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…434cbacked Yes | 60c | 80.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 34c | 74.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 61c | 59.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes | 64c | 55.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4809…f6dfbacked Yes | 78c | 54.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 46.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…54b9backed Yes | 68c | 43.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…2289backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 75c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…e15cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 60c | 26.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x217b…fa65backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +9.0wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…1b33backed Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.