TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$320,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x424a…04cebacked Yes2c39,614$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.162222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb826…635abacked Yes4c37,417$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2a…160dbacked Yes2c16,644$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes5c15,802$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.3711734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes3c11,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-92.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6b0…b8dcbacked Yes4c9,501$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.53911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…6952backed Yes6c9,463$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.16100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd137…2aa3backed Yes0c8,650$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes5c7,186$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d3…2150backed Yes7c6,902$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.99147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c6,229$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.552221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c5,911$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.951,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes5c5,233$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.653713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa75…6ec2backed Yes5c3,545$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed Yes2c3,333$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.43190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1da7…0e20backed Yes4c3,322$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c3,113$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.95738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…8289backed Yes40c2,850$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd31…97a4backed Yes5c2,356$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.95540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-49.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aa4…5f8cbacked Yes4c2,115$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.25147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-80.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c2,082$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.71987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes6c2,008$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4811212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0478…9041backed Yes33c1,834$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60080%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfb4…d47cbacked Yes18c1,751$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes5c1,672$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.72524%6 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59b3…a039backed Yes2c1,661$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6180%0 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2178…aab5backed Yes2c1,648$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75205%1 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-87.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes4c1,412$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.666526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6332…ecf2backed Yes14c1,380$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes3c1,343$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.45840%0 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e0…46d1backed Yes5c1,269$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+456.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes23c1,251$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9390%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes6c1,143$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e38…39bcbacked Yes4c1,117$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes3c973.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7221228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes15c899.96$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.997727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes5c881.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.532060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6986…1402backed Yes7c760$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.11717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c0…0cf3backed Yes7c723$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x492f…8144backed Yes4c684.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252425%6 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa09…7dd3backed Yes7c680$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.970%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes3c650.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No76c647.58$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.694240.5%17 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ffe…b822backed Yes5c639.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No65c623.36$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.171080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff4…ff03backed Yes4c548.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes5c500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd2…1df5backed Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068e…c857backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes9c499.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b4…56ffbacked Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+99.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe748…2b23backed Yes3c463.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-81.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed Yes43c449.91$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.291060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes12c433.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995959.3%35 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+35.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes20c409.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.410126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…a86ebacked Yes3c372.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d93…c671backed No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37f…fdcfbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes30c300$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes4c299.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd6e…4ffebacked Yes5c292.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-64.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes5c290.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c97…8be7backed Yes19c286.13$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.421711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…c548backed Yes5c279.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.34616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404e…703bbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%3 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick13cpaid+258%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1881…edd9backed Yes12c242.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17f…e9b2backed No74c238.88$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.11785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes7c236.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab75…738fbacked Yes5c233.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.482832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes17c219.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.633036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105635.7%20 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xacea…8b97backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-61.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21d9…84f6backed Yes41c199.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb49…693ebacked No76c195.66$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.66475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No72c179.51$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5110051%51 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No64c177.46$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.994831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…443abacked Yes13c160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.742913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x404a…ee3ebacked No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0b…f011backed Yes12c149.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-85.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes9c147$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74717%8 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d4f…c649backed Yes11c144.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.891631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes19c133.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.884020%8 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a7b…30e8backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes48c122.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7124126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked Yes21c119.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.782937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes11c116.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.381442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9504…d738backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8a…fd72backed Yes68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5544…ad93backed Yes22c99.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed No77c98.36$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.032152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b9…1e80backed Yes24c93.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes11c91.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0629747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes28c72.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6411139.6%44 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e0e…abecbacked Yes33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.