Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74ef80070ef90dfac1da8107c7e2f2aee1bf880df88a968a542411553ce30e81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 4c | 12,930$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.78 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 1c | 8,180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…b04cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,930$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,259$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 3c | 3,704$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,269$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…8fe0backed Yes | 3c | 3,173$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…9f08backed Yes | 4c | 2,792$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 2,775$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 5c | 2,521$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 5c | 2,448$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,312$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 2,257$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 1c | 2,187$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 1c | 2,041$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4903…2f00backed Yes | 2c | 1,628$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…ed6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,604$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…76fabacked Yes | 8c | 1,428$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 8c | 1,414$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 4c | 1,314$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,173$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 3c | 1,144$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…cd22backed Yes | 3c | 1,063$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 969.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 886.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 2c | 851.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 292 | 36.3%106 W · 186 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 837.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a65…34a7backed Yes | 6c | 710.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 656.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 3c | 612.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 3c | 588.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 566.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9b…b6aabacked Yes | 3c | 524$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…e15cbacked Yes | 5c | 501.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…688dbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 3c | 451.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…e939backed Yes | 5c | 413.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…a9a0backed Yes | 3c | 410.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…f596backed Yes | 5c | 404.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 391.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2f7cbacked Yes | 3c | 346.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 28c | 344$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…7b37backed Yes | 12c | 256.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…1672backed Yes | 8c | 236.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34c…016abacked Yes | 11c | 214.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eef…2974backed Yes | 8c | 202.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 9c | 175.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 157.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…fad4backed Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 70c | 30.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.