Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1c008e15b102dd1a7d4d3981575816e5b0e281285fa22533bd7b415c2f5e2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb826…635abacked Yes | 2c | 34,558$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 24,294$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.26 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,381$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…0e20backed Yes | 2c | 9,313$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2a…160dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,181$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 3c | 7,544$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…4806backed Yes | 2c | 7,508$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 6c | 5,357$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.58 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 2c | 5,222$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Yes | 2c | 5,192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…30eebacked Yes | 0c | 3,914$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,764$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.74 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,559$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fb…c97dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,532$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…43eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,907$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…8be7backed Yes | 12c | 2,678$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.1 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…6952backed Yes | 5c | 2,591$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…b8dcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,548$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…9041backed Yes | 16c | 2,546$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ba…96abbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…39bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,856$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,341$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…a922backed Yes | 2c | 1,322$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 2c | 1,301$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…1df5backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…ea80backed Yes | 2c | 1,268$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 5c | 1,237$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,183$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e98…e39abacked Yes | 3c | 1,141$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,050$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241b…3be2backed Yes | 1c | 1,045$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…37fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,019$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…a039backed Yes | 1c | 960.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…edd9backed Yes | 6c | 759.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…bde7backed Yes | 5c | 758.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 2c | 679.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5c08backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 561.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa2…378abacked Yes | 3c | 545.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…8dfcbacked Yes | 13c | 483.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…6624backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…1e80backed Yes | 14c | 390.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 328$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…078fbacked Yes | 11c | 282.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes | 5c | 211.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…fba8backed Yes | 18c | 134.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 133.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…7462backed Yes | 19c | 115.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…eb11backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…458abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…ad93backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…7a58backed Yes | 26c | 95.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 89.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes | 26c | 77.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b7cfbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.