Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91327b327c4103053e9a3d04e9c53d8cb259517bf4e35567275b0dccf9e7c6b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,490 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4a4…3238backed No | 1c | 26,828$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…2d0ebacked No | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,872$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…f7c5backed No | 2c | 7,265$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd2…bcf5backed Yes | 7c | 3,800$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…70dfbacked No | 1c | 2,540$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,656$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…a4e3backed No | 11c | 284.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…f13abacked No | 16c | 242.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 69c | 126.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 61c | 112.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…7c57backed Yes | 28c | 105.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 80.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 55c | 46.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 50c | 41.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 51c | 41.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 77c | 41.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…1b71backed Yes | 71c | 32.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes | 74c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.