TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,314,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,429,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,314,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 812 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes52c174,056$91,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,723.8610930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5b…576fbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No59c58,505$34,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,525.682653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d4…afabbacked No0c42,280$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No64c18,953$12,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,096.786233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c18,914$12,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,752.4493040.3%375 W · 555 L-67.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No45c16,962$7,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,69111921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c16,744$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.782221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked No27c15,194$4,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.547244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47a…6d60backed Yes54c15,000$8,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9008100%8 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No24c14,670$3,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,484.4927322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ca…cd59backed No47c14,565$6,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,863.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+96.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No41c14,513$5,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,992.911734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes36c13,777$5,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,767.773528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked No37c12,565$4,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,641.612552%13 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x68e2…30acbacked No0c10,807$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed No43c9,281$3,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,963.761833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49e9…8f85backed No66c9,276$6,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,115.21425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes50c9,074$4,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,580.972060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No56c8,765$4,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,927.0114849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes47c8,511$4,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,507.066346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No45c8,237$3,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,713.036267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes61c7,411$4,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.295560%33 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes42c6,814$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.231553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+84.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc360…dbb2backed No40c6,595$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6501735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x740c…d013backed No23c6,292$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.334122%9 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e92…6929backed No46c5,867$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,674.3825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No28c5,838$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.815020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No7c5,816$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1820624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No33c5,624$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.125151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed No37c5,576$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.753946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9a…ac80backed No0c5,130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked No53c5,118$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.93666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb275…28b1backed No42c5,116$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.332025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No36c4,856$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.331729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa75e…3748backed No2c4,774$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes70c4,555$3,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.127847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d4…c3f9backed No64c4,080$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No49c3,909$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.186651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No57c3,881$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.34933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…ba12backed No26c3,696$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.781435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes55c3,626$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.7213949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed No20c3,322$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.083116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No54c3,196$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.516654.5%36 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed No64c3,124$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick60cpaid-78.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb688…6862backed Yes51c3,056$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff3…8c08backed No33c3,032$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.872755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x613b…fdffbacked Yes36c3,031$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.291225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed No65c3,015$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.294951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed No10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes52c2,997$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.9730839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab8…eb56backed No47c2,961$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.562623.1%6 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-41.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9945…385bbacked No40c2,921$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.831711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-75.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No38c2,780$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.5511032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb971…e7aebacked No46c2,642$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.331361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…46e6backed No49c2,624$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06f6…8fcfbacked No61c2,560$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.75714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick53cpaid-81.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes56c2,474$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.691250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c2,360$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.8524126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1024…9651backed Yes53c2,329$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.521546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No12c2,322$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.07948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No61c2,247$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.588734.5%30 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fb…db5cbacked No31c2,209$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.812540%10 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No3c2,200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d66…79cabacked No6c2,200$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.61747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7873…c7e1backed No4c2,173$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a4…a537backed Yes48c2,125$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f7…aef9backed Yes50c2,067$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.361323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked No28c2,065$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.762965.5%19 W · 10 L+9.3wins+0.32per pick33cpaid+90.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0bd4…c680backed No51c2,051$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.992744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…27b4backed No45c2,049$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.96988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No49c2,027$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.87041.4%29 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed No1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.535438.9%21 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.984042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed Yes70c1,998$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.441450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacea…eeecbacked No24c1,992$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes59c1,984$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.424170.7%29 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd226…35acbacked Yes76c1,961$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.442171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,959$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.521,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No45c1,945$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.878650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052a…b945backed No74c1,914$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.88650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…6be7backed Yes53c1,900$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick25cpaid+64.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No17c1,895$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.277711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes56c1,881$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.531764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No49c1,861$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.743928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No53c1,850$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.426521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No45c1,849$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.845810.3%6 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07ab…7c23backed No29c1,791$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4bf…e97bbacked Yes59c1,781$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.061127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No43c1,683$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.1811628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No2c1,683$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.86230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed No48c1,663$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.582437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked No16c1,662$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.012817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes64c1,658$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.42437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+321.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No61c1,641$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010051%51 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x434d…a1d5backed No39c1,614$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.34540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed No18c1,604$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.193641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ed…aa53backed Yes69c1,593$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.863158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c1,574$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.4818440.2%74 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No50c1,532$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.238637.2%32 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.