Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98728d940ba33c8675997663835b21198c92326aa188e8ffc3c07eed7ba85b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 3c | 82,011$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.74 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 6c | 8,858$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.92 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 5c | 8,128$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.71 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77c2…089cbacked Yes | 5c | 6,050$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 5,249$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.39 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,020$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,826$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 1,038 | 9.2%96 W · 942 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 9c | 2,474$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 3c | 2,304$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,265$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,822$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…2d0ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,586$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 11c | 1,506$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,373$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…e939backed Yes | 4c | 1,186$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 1,107$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 6c | 1,105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 13c | 1,058$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,022$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 3c | 1,005$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…6be7backed Yes | 4c | 873.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 25cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 3c | 840.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35cb…93adbacked Yes | 6c | 830$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 778.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 4c | 767.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…116ebacked Yes | 3c | 700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…1909backed Yes | 2c | 628.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 560.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 7c | 234$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 13c | 226.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,294 | 24.1%312 W · 982 L | -59.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 8c | 199.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…c999backed Yes | 13c | 186.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 56c | 180.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 7c | 176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…e15cbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…76fabacked Yes | 10c | 146$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 8c | 134.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 15c | 107.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…b055backed Yes | 17c | 98.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…23b1backed Yes | 13c | 93.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed No | 57c | 41.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed No | 75c | 40.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.