TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$429,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$470,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,638 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes4c141,577$6,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,083.410930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes1c31,778$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.6215020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes6c11,022$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.4630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f7…aef9backed Yes8c6,380$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.211323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes3c6,322$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9729436.1%106 W · 188 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes1c4,774$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes5c2,980$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.613949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes7c2,380$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.65617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,268$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.471,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc045…92f1backed Yes1c2,268$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes6c2,200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes2c2,189$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.62060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes11c2,071$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.336434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+526.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes5c2,053$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.65707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,969$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.482221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes7c1,879$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.543666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes1c1,787$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,707$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5415…2159backed Yes6c1,528$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ee…ca0fbacked Yes20c1,430$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes17c1,412$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.78128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-69.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes2c1,384$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.831246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cd…c187backed No80c1,300$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2662373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a8…62eebacked Yes16c1,289$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes7c1,256$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.848617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes11c1,199$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.332023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes17c1,122$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes8c1,119$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.851884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes7c1,070$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes7c1,057$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes7c1,054$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.59850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes14c1,015$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.12157.1%12 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+44.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c22…76fabacked Yes13c1,009$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.22170%0 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb3…2d0ebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes3c999.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes6c981.42$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.11812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd85b…d467backed Yes4c928.92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x866e…2d1ebacked Yes1c877$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes12c870.59$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.493020%6 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c834.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9112126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c77…1b6bbacked Yes20c804.71$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes2c787.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6419923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfed3…c43fbacked Yes17c705.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+41.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes21c668.65$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.991338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…8ce9backed No77c626.28$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.04887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+79.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9da9…e9c7backed Yes21c618.71$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eec…c999backed No76c614.61$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.512142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes12c601.23$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.837921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x568f…fe75backed Yes19c538.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5fa…a7c1backed Yes30c490.81$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48d6…1556backed Yes15c470.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+38.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf13a…a600backed Yes17c464.39$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes7c402.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.161212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe172…248abacked Yes8c389.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302520%5 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes17c387.95$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+82.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4412…f131backed Yes6c332.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+50%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c317.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aae…1cb0backed Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes17c297.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4126413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2534…f596backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa56f…b885backed Yes18c280$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404c…74dcbacked Yes13c269.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.662483.3%20 W · 4 L+5.7wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes4c261.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.936346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No75c259.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.23036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7e80…c229backed Yes8c256.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f65…484fbacked Yes20c250.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270f…5e39backed Yes8c241.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa323…2778backed Yes14c219.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d12…4a9ebacked Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes16c210$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.631,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed No77c209.63$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.212650%13 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+66.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes17c209.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.112634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x793e…8f5fbacked Yes20c200.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87bf…3111backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x692e…ec1ebacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes15c188.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.227041.4%29 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked No75c165$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.451060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No79c161.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.557439.2%29 W · 45 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+131.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb839…6f4fbacked Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d5…e993backed Yes8c144.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c137.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5423846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdbb…6984backed No76c131.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.05650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe453…b05dbacked Yes17c129.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…ce87backed Yes13c125.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8deb…d435backed Yes19c120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68c…c8b1backed Yes16c117.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c115.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6630718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b0…9d34backed No66c112.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.154065%26 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d9e…e0e6backed Yes13c103.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x554b…8216backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9feb…ac7abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc965…e751backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.621266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2fa…ed3ebacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4834…0c43backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-76.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed3…6f56backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.