TailMyPicks
Market

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,109,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,156,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,109,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 526 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes8c434,766$33,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,594.21315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed Yes10c327,330$33,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,543.211338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c221,188$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.28230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes8c156,255$12,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,263.371421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x340c…1007backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c79,106$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.11140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950d…dac5backed Yes0c77,157$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e0…b541backed Yes0c60,137$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.41812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09aa…0879backed Yes10c55,033$5,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,614.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-54.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c51,100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1392.6%1 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes2c48,445$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.63120%0 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe620…03acbacked Yes6c39,888$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,231.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c33,329$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ced…011abacked Yes8c32,700$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75490%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes10c32,528$3,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,109.0732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes4c30,516$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.75580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes8c30,476$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.852744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes12c28,187$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,251.855915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c26,434$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.06948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0b…840abacked Yes5c25,386$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.56140%0 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes2c24,990$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.6914849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd837…e931backed Yes4c24,708$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes9c24,393$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.227011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafc0…5087backed Yes3c23,829$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.982722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes2c23,726$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.57707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33fa…169dbacked Yes6c23,568$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.77911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0515…a166backed Yes0c21,843$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes14c21,546$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,910.441118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e42…0098backed Yes11c20,301$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes5c19,620$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.721637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+111.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes5c18,131$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.026521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d9…37fcbacked Yes5c17,027$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.822218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-72.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1664…a0cebacked Yes5c16,245$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.541612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x613b…fdffbacked Yes11c14,944$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.841225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes12c14,311$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.383619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2808…16babacked Yes10c13,888$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.11520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eba…3865backed Yes10c13,649$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.9260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e40…3080backed Yes14c13,053$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.87714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-75.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c5b…333dbacked Yes2c12,030$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd80…15abbacked Yes7c12,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7144…6624backed Yes2c11,656$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.93160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d9…fdd5backed Yes12c11,043$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf678…a255backed Yes3c11,019$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce1…3c1abacked Yes8c10,850$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes16c10,315$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.716361.9%39 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe373…e8e8backed Yes11c10,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05090%0 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc9b…5803backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f54…0161backed Yes14c9,712$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.96728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-39.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes12c9,597$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.545018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d64…8f94backed Yes6c8,828$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes7c8,817$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.211628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a81…6a21backed Yes2c8,676$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edf…1011backed Yes5c8,185$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes17c8,169$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3861010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes7c8,109$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.9570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31cd…47e5backed Yes11c8,097$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.231323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ce…0817backed Yes11c8,085$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c41…d286backed Yes3c8,000$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…6b9dbacked Yes13c7,905$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes3c7,850$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.83315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed5…f818backed Yes6c7,753$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.39540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes1c7,377$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71ab…0af0backed Yes13c7,126$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.882536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67fb…788fbacked Yes5c7,043$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes11c7,000$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.72544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes1c7,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94330%0 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9a7…5793backed Yes5c6,978$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6190%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe138…6aa4backed Yes18c6,905$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…4ccbbacked Yes15c6,713$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb24d…277fbacked Yes5c6,340$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x746a…8a4bbacked Yes17c6,316$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.2260%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes10c6,271$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.493020%6 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x269f…24d6backed Yes16c6,255$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes10c6,152$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.08128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-75.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b5…708dbacked Yes8c6,116$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ccb…fbbbbacked Yes17c6,035$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.870%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5543…8d64backed Yes13c6,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.532722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed Yes2c6,000$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.52326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes3c5,998$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.456526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbce…30bebacked Yes17c5,967$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3377…af60backed Yes12c5,918$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes5c5,651$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.74238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2255…c5ffbacked Yes4c5,528$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…c549backed Yes4c5,478$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.78922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb29d…343abacked Yes12c5,331$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.571421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a1…3175backed Yes15c5,305$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+367.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes8c5,174$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.091884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c5,145$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.231306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad5…1869backed Yes0c4,943$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes8c4,915$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.012010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e58…4344backed Yes4c4,895$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003540%14 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e5…7cb2backed Yes5c4,578$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes1c4,502$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.622425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed Yes5c4,416$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.84190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes2c4,333$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.721246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc228…b6c5backed Yes15c4,247$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-77.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932f…2cd8backed Yes5c3,933$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.29812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1f…c556backed Yes17c3,909$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.0650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefd…4f2abacked Yes14c3,905$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.661323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.