TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,054 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c17,255$17 inLost-$17.26140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes3c3,755$105 inLost-$105.297930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c3,497$12 inLost-$12.162425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,372$15 inLost-$15.14230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a83…a9a0backed Yes2c2,620$60 inLost-$60156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,859$18 inLost-$18.332221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76cf…88c4backed Yes8c1,823$146 inLost-$145.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7897…de05backed Yes9c1,443$130 inLost-$129.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7524…2f7cbacked Yes1c1,415$20 inLost-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-75.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe172…248abacked Yes3c1,149$40 inLost-$402520%5 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d80…2070backed Yes5c1,080$50 inLost-$50137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick37cpaid-87.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes1c887.18$13 inLost-$13.24908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c596.59$18 inLost-$18.491,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes2c501.33$11 inLost-$11.181884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes3c401.98$13 inLost-$13.2727322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a53…7635backed Yes5c401.96$20 inLost-$20.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes4c310.94$11 inLost-$11.143522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.