TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,953,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,652,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,953,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 925 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes13c286,124$36,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,840.171315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed Yes11c86,392$9,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,906.211338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafc0…5087backed Yes15c82,222$12,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,306.42722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes17c74,130$12,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,406.310930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes13c67,642$8,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,971.236521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…2c4dbacked Yes26c66,734$17,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,350.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefd…4f2abacked Yes20c58,036$11,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,666.781323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Yes9c55,887$4,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,795.751513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0b…840abacked Yes15c49,765$7,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,372.21140%0 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes24c46,374$11,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,017.943619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e21…35cabacked No73c40,000$29,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,799.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9945…385bbacked Yes20c30,770$6,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,032.411711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-75.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes21c29,959$6,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,282.856233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes2c29,575$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6802638.5%10 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.18per pick21cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes18c27,877$5,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,081.732832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes18c25,813$4,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,763.77335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8a…548cbacked Yes10c25,252$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.1450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea6f…1b28backed No74c24,198$17,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,291.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ced…011abacked Yes16c23,735$3,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,838.7590%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes19c22,993$4,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,339.8732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…64d1backed No74c22,020$16,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,725.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…ba77backed No74c21,345$15,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,518.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c20,579$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.37948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93f9…138ebacked No74c20,489$15,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,327.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes31c20,449$6,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,239.291931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2974…9c23backed No77c18,769$14,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.631844.4%8 W · 10 L-4.9wins-0.27per pick72cpaid-40.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No78c17,035$13,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,710.03875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0954…1672backed Yes4c16,479$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67fb…788fbacked Yes8c16,250$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes15c14,681$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.385115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes22c14,563$3,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.083020%6 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No77c14,282$11,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,220.21977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7144…6624backed Yes3c14,020$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.08160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5082…049dbacked Yes27c13,193$3,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,546.344548.9%22 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes4c13,125$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.89707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed No73c12,817$9,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,415.482176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+81.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed Yes16c12,769$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.162524%6 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9631…89a1backed No79c12,563$9,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb69b…aa30backed Yes10c12,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes22c11,583$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.437011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes30c11,398$3,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,446.132250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes27c11,021$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.6760%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2808…16babacked Yes23c10,985$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.411520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Yes13c10,568$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.71435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0618…c39abacked Yes3c10,122$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes26c10,034$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.842227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-52.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes12c9,741$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.95120%0 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes1c9,666$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.193036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd837…e931backed Yes13c9,641$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb8d…aa15backed Yes20c9,086$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…63dbbacked Yes28c8,984$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x388e…1867backed Yes11c8,743$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1bb…5f6abacked Yes28c8,666$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes13c8,541$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.371612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes27c8,513$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.23488.3%4 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x155d…e868backed Yes2c8,325$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes12c8,099$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.132552%13 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac5c…7b5bbacked Yes29c7,999$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.7180%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes22c7,823$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.58617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes27c7,750$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.682544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes20c7,593$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.772839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e40…3080backed Yes25c7,575$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-75.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes15c7,574$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.28128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-75.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x952b…edfabacked No79c7,409$5,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.571471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…4709backed Yes30c7,303$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,215.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x487b…5915backed No56c6,962$3,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No67c6,792$4,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,222.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes24c6,775$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.373534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed No75c6,489$4,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.791442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8276…48e4backed Yes26c6,410$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.441414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-70%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes2c6,364$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.73580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked No67c6,323$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2272…b294backed Yes23c6,200$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45090%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1664…a0cebacked Yes9c6,059$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.121612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes19c6,043$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.381323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd949…5507backed Yes19c5,831$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes23c5,793$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.4434534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8138…3c88backed Yes24c5,792$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cd…c187backed No70c5,704$3,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.042373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1ad…bd19backed Yes15c5,631$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.62147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes7c5,565$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.77330%0 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3377…af60backed Yes13c5,541$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9cc…31ddbacked No66c5,476$3,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48a…7a1cbacked Yes25c5,470$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes2c5,447$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.37210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…37fcbacked Yes14c5,297$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7202218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-72.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No71c5,274$3,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.271758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea5e…ac9ebacked Yes15c5,191$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes2c5,055$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.291414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes30c5,027$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ef…b402backed Yes25c5,010$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x258d…4fd6backed Yes27c4,973$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-82.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x027a…ea13backed No64c4,839$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.563100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ca…cd59backed Yes2c4,726$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+96.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed Yes20c4,705$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff25…421fbacked Yes19c4,663$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8861050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes23c4,655$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.4511628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eed…101bbacked Yes32c4,607$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.