TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6735…f5b7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
103
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$12.95
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$4.94
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.16
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.23
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+100%+$12
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+28.2%+$10.72
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+109.6%+$11.76
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.23
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$21.86
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+69.5%+$15.29
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$374.23
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+94.8%+$351
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$135.36
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$624Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+48.6%+$302.91
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+48.1%+$19.49
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.81
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$54.64
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.73
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+72.4%+$10.5
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.05
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203%+$67
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,154Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,153.82
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$122.61
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$756Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+281.9%+$2,131.5
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.87
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$58.93
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$78.01
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.25
All 13 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.92
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit 5700 (LOW) in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.74
Will Netflix reach $228 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.03
Will Apple dip to $232 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+49.3%+$92.72
Will Apple dip to $240 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$87.23
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of February 23 above $405?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+316.7%+$35.69
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+37%+$12.68
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $156?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+42.4%+$10.44
Will Meta reach $750 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+33.8%+$24.94
Will Microsoft reach $525 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$10.51
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+32%+$6.56
Will Meta reach $720 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$19.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
Will Tria launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$16.59
Will Tria launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.4%+$33.33
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+26.2%+$116.73
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$117.39
Will Trove launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$23.98
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$243.85
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+59.1%+$258.07
Will Kodiak launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+26%+$3.3
Will Infrared launch a token by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+50.1%+$46.66
Will Infrared launch a token by March 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$38.73
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$5.09
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.86
VEO 4 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+32.9%+$18.55
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$107.35
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+39%+$113.76
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.79
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.22
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$186.11
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$46.84
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$73.36
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.5%+$6.95
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.92
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.26
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.13
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$87.13
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.02
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+949.9%+$176.53
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.85
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+28.2%+$21.05
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.75
All 10 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+60.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+64.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,013Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+204.7%+$2,073.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.