Token Launches · resolved market
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2703cc8201b20d77574af3335cee74572f658f5b09e9078496570abccb325e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 0c | 10,186$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 3c | 3,165$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,722$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,807$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,169$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…763fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,113$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1254…9decbacked Yes | 10c | 1,078$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…85cebacked Yes | 16c | 937.94$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…e121backed Yes | 16c | 925$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…f5edbacked Yes | 19c | 648.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…26b2backed Yes | 27c | 576.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 79c | 569$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…24dfbacked Yes | 14c | 544.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed No | 76c | 523$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.37 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x644f…02b3backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 450.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd959…2712backed Yes | 3c | 433.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…bc3cbacked Yes | 5c | 410.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 410.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 3c | 410.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 3c | 382.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…dc78backed Yes | 4c | 371.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 4c | 363.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bd…e50dbacked Yes | 4c | 350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…b174backed Yes | 25c | 347.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…23dbbacked Yes | 23c | 342.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 316.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 308.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 307.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…2bb4backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 73c | 199.96$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 14c | 107.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 73c | 102.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 67c | 51.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $450M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $550M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.