Token Launches · resolved market
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f2158e04dec35565e6b30b7c9fa0e32f80ec29d6662956c21f0b0e498af6fd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $435,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $500,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b5d…7a01backed No | 37c | 29,798$10,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,929.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…7380backed No | 16c | 24,363$3,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 61c | 24,235$14,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,726.08 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 34c | 12,852$4,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,359.13 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd5…1dc7backed No | 16c | 9,209$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 19c | 8,427$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.39 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…bc00backed No | 26c | 7,042$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…3141backed Yes | 38c | 7,000$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc703…2531backed No | 62c | 7,000$4,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,340 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…4991backed No | 43c | 6,000$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…d4babacked Yes | 80c | 4,239$3,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 40c | 4,032$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.63 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…df41backed Yes | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 15c | 3,500$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 47c | 3,470$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.57 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…5fbdbacked No | 11c | 3,390$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df1…f1a7backed Yes | 75c | 3,261$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 65c | 3,246$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.56 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 12c | 3,189$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.71 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes | 31c | 2,986$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb029…ae06backed No | 8c | 2,820$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 27c | 2,619$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.56 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 10c | 2,505$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…234abacked Yes | 58c | 2,143$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 2,003$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.36 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.03 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +13.4wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 1,934$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.01 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 19c | 1,922$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed No | 13c | 1,904$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 14c | 1,862$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…874dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,851$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.95 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,811$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.94 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…0db9backed Yes | 44c | 1,781$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 43c | 1,736$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.68 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed No | 8c | 1,696$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,670$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.29 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed Yes | 29c | 1,585$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.16 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…2828backed Yes | 66c | 1,524$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.97 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…c359backed No | 14c | 1,450$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 66c | 1,400$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.01 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3907…5d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,399$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…cde4backed No | 12c | 1,367$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…f0d6backed No | 67c | 1,364$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…e06ebacked No | 63c | 1,333$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…4bcebacked No | 63c | 1,303$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cc…066fbacked No | 63c | 1,292$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed Yes | 80c | 1,221$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb769…e46ebacked No | 63c | 1,216$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…87f8backed Yes | 60c | 1,183$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…b174backed Yes | 43c | 1,129$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4a…ec49backed No | 63c | 1,101$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d28…6d7abacked Yes | 29c | 1,037$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…23dbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,011$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.51 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed No | 15c | 1,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed No | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed No | 4c | 999.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 55c | 992.46$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 34c | 971.34$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +76%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 33c | 922$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +607.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 67c | 922$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 54c | 917.6$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.58 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 68c | 833$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.96 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 47c | 827.7$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.94 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 26c | 804.79$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.44 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1254…9decbacked Yes | 60c | 800.1$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 57c | 800$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea9…bdc1backed No | 66c | 800$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 32c | 792.63$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.99 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6313…c785backed No | 63c | 783.95$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 4c | 783.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 47c | 736.61$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.75 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…3b52backed Yes | 29c | 689$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…eb47backed Yes | 44c | 688.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 6c | 655.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…b8ebbacked Yes | 46c | 647.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 55c | 645.47$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.35 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 53c | 638.05$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 4c | 617$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…4836backed Yes | 30c | 612$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…961fbacked Yes | 64c | 601.05$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 72c | 600$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebc…97e6backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cf…b077backed No | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 26c | 587.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 48c | 582.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.34 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…763fbacked Yes | 51c | 576.86$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 26c | 576.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…ce8cbacked No | 62c | 571.98$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed No | 9c | 549$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed No | 28c | 544.25$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 57c | 541.62$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.09 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 71c | 529.54$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.6 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 69c | 526.14$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…e4ddbacked No | 11c | 505.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $450M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $550M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.