TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,692 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes73c5,979$4,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.468728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7789…a2cebacked No40c3,035$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.011827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked Yes73c2,223$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.063256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No2c2,171$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.241117.2%8 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked No27c1,580$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.21050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7351421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e19…b55cbacked No36c1,347$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.141844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No6c1,226$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.158327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No17c1,199$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.421541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c38…4603backed No19c1,110$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa83…537bbacked No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503060%18 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes43c882.36$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.9514335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No33c817.16$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.442917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+166%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd959…2712backed Yes79c797.89$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-81.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b60…bc00backed No49c756.91$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeae6…d96abacked Yes46c752.45$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf0…c5c4backed No26c659.6$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.924037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed No43c604.25$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.93151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f06…4c0bbacked No8c585$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No33c531.32$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.853360.6%20 W · 13 L+7.9wins+0.24per pick37cpaid+54.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked No37c501.08$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1842321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8520551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No17c499.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8513131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No32c454.01$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.647663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb719…de28backed Yes60c403.96$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8924…ab27backed Yes63c400.43$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.171428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No20c398.13$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5310320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…d3d1backed Yes80c370.16$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.261442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed No19c319.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.62520%5 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes52c300$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14512528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed Yes46c248.98$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.558440.5%34 W · 50 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes80c244.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.818134.6%28 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed No21c229.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.269645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No37c210$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fff…d384backed Yes67c209.71$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed No19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+97.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6944…7275backed No30c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803727%10 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed No20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca29…287fbacked Yes68c196.88$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed No32c196.88$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3971…0a8cbacked No22c156.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed No22c153$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.668532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes72c146.64$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.648744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7cc…cec1backed Yes77c141$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.21963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No18c136.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2719336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes80c135$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.552626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa09b…071ebacked Yes55c135$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617418.9%14 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes80c134.02$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.344330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No44c131.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4246320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No22c129.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.192638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No60c129$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.114835.4%17 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbf2…31f0backed No40c110$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No41c102$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8221240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb90a…78e1backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03eb…d4babacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f14…d00abacked Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x321d…ed56backed Yes49c99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.497346.6%34 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…4723backed Yes75c91.44$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.38154.3%44 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes63c82.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.12536%9 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa79d…6b36backed Yes49c78.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No20c59.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.983636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c15…9528backed Yes80c59.9$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa337…4ababacked Yes80c59.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No28c58.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.692917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf83…caf7backed Yes80c56.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef78…653bbacked Yes78c54.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb029…ae06backed No22c54.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.08837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c02…ad3dbacked Yes78c53.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf109…eabcbacked Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec57…6b28backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5036…187fbacked Yes68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes64c47.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2215362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes65c46.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes74c43.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.245650%28 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No26c38.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked No58c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No32c32.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3296.9%2 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c6a…5e48backed Yes75c31.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5e…3921backed No59c30.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46e8…a63dbacked No67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff9b…d477backed Yes78c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe53c…e569backed Yes53c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.932860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.