Token Launches · resolved market
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a713a5ce20c7252072fdcfe86e2869dcefe06c61bbd97df5842b58833c279f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 1c | 4,257$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 2c | 3,206$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…bc3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,878$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed Yes | 9c | 1,826$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…85cebacked Yes | 14c | 1,663$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…763fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,537$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…24dfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,352$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 6c | 926.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…6227backed Yes | 3c | 920$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb769…e46ebacked Yes | 5c | 920$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 79c | 900$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 6c | 685.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cea…7f1ebacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 592.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 575.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…3d98backed Yes | 3c | 575.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd6…717dbacked Yes | 9c | 520.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…e121backed Yes | 23c | 515.65$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…0db9backed Yes | 32c | 427.76$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1254…9decbacked Yes | 20c | 426.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…23dbbacked Yes | 21c | 417.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…2bb4backed Yes | 8c | 415.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 383.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…f5edbacked Yes | 14c | 371.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 322.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 8c | 303$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +104%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…6ee6backed No | 80c | 302.56$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 7c | 301.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 300.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…e5abbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +135%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 7c | 288.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 6c | 279.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 268.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 4c | 248$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 220.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 216.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 213.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…821ebacked Yes | 16c | 211.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 210$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…b174backed Yes | 17c | 199.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…6c88backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 9c | 177.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 9c | 148.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 143.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 7c | 137.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644f…02b3backed Yes | 9c | 135.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…26b2backed Yes | 16c | 106.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 80c | 85.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b6…62bbbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $450M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $550M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.