Token Launches · resolved market
GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x181f5ed8c4370186f4ecf0e46f54735ef79af9e47affc0d5ad6f0b3c33626f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd959…2712backed Yes | 54c | 2,383$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1f…5757backed Yes | 70c | 706.52$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3907…5d2ebacked No | 41c | 624.73$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…d4babacked Yes | 64c | 611.11$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed No | 69c | 548.25$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 62c | 449.87$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.21 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb029…ae06backed No | 41c | 421$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 399$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 11c | 309.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed No | 51c | 300$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Yes | 38c | 279.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 38c | 262.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 73c | 249.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 47c | 236.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40d…5a77backed No | 40c | 231.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 28c | 215.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 55c | 211.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 57c | 181.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 20c | 170$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…4603backed Yes | 24c | 168.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 151.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed No | 55c | 125.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…8fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…de28backed Yes | 68c | 101.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 55c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 23c | 76.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…187fbacked Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c0…0aa7backed Yes | 46c | 74.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 71.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 62.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…d3d1backed Yes | 54c | 44.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…dec9backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 31.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 65c | 28.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 49c | 21.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?this page
- GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $450M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $550M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.