Token Launches · resolved market
GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791ebd5b15efd4a510b3a936ee361e755fbab79fbbe585bb6b169d197208c742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd959…2712backed Yes | 39c | 1,473$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 38c | 1,024$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed No | 61c | 999.98$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 42c | 870.81$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.68 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 58c | 713.16$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.16 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…4603backed Yes | 32c | 648.82$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 470.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 60c | 393.01$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 52c | 341.35$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.83 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 39c | 327.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1f…5757backed Yes | 54c | 310$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…4991backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed Yes | 38c | 249.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed No | 58c | 210$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 182.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…dab3backed Yes | 36c | 139.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 69c | 132.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb029…ae06backed No | 55c | 106$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad4…1704backed No | 59c | 100.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 70.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c0…0aa7backed Yes | 35c | 58.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 79c | 56.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…e05fbacked No | 56c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9daa…3706backed Yes | 50c | 48.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…d3d1backed Yes | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 73c | 37.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 36.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…c780backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 43c | 23.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $450M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $550M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.