TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$369,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$440,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b5d…7a01backed No10c81,685$8,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,307.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e7…7380backed No4c18,176$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.69425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-31.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…bc00backed No4c10,000$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.0950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c8,761$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.582061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No30c6,998$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.9217859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x13e9…4563backed No2c6,504$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick20cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No4c6,000$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214835.4%17 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed No5c5,120$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.222520%5 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes63c4,431$2,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62815941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95a9…c359backed No3c4,000$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9b…5dc2backed No9c3,500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102020%4 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac81…c181backed Yes60c3,438$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.341872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+79.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c3,107$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.037663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf53e…2728backed Yes66c2,498$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+107.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb029…ae06backed No3c2,479$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa83…537bbacked No2c2,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.43060%18 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked Yes62c2,164$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No17c1,934$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.692917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+166%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a5…d93bbacked No29c1,557$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.72045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+102.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked No32c1,517$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c3…da06backed No35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacf0…c5c4backed No4c1,500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed Yes62c1,421$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No8c1,341$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.872626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No38c1,320$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.566927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No34c1,317$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.314548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes68c1,307$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.24875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+134.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed Yes68c1,305$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No20c1,223$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.877126.8%19 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91d…91fdbacked No32c1,206$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No5c1,200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4642…3141backed No34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+122.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc703…2531backed Yes66c1,200$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No12c1,189$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.175541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No2c1,130$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.66296.9%2 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02ee…b1b4backed Yes68c1,118$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed No38c1,074$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick31cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed No5c1,061$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+90.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x486b…3ea7backed No38c1,004$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3308744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cbf…6c43backed No33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3304942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed No38c983$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabea…2a87backed No6c950$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No38c945$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes73c900$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…f0d6backed No34c900$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d68…4f6dbacked No32c883.89$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes62c848$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes62c815$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes62c792$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick39cpaid+314%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes62c764$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.321250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…26b2backed Yes70c761.65$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…83e5backed No38c731$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No14c726.07$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.653729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed No21c721.92$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.62748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No2c715.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.48032.5%26 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3109…5f14backed No33c713.48$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.341338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b65…ce09backed No34c700$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd9…78d7backed Yes66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033c…86b7backed No38c690$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No8c630$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.033246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c627.94$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.512442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked No41c621.02$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7472…645bbacked No36c579.97$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.392360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…0523backed Yes64c575$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2053100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No38c573.57$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.166420.3%13 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73c0…3733backed No29c567.04$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.441844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No35c501.54$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5412840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14012528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12f2…2ba5backed No31c499.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…81a5backed No38c479$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed No6c471.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4822…0de4backed No29c450$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1292250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4218…4814backed No26c450$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x429f…42f8backed Yes80c445$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf584…76a2backed Yes70c429.49$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe393…e10bbacked No39c381.76$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…eb47backed Yes79c381.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…b8ebbacked Yes79c381.11$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…fd92backed Yes66c370.43$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.931625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…ce8cbacked No41c365.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f4…770bbacked No30c365.44$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-76.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb256…3f94backed No28c360$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.82536%9 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fc…23dbbacked Yes70c355.88$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No7c352.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.695832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed Yes65c349.1$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.153823.7%9 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No5c346.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.063315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No8c346.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.761330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a32…6d07backed Yes68c326$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…3e93backed Yes68c321.52$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No11c320.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.053495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcedb…20febacked Yes68c317.63$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes62c312$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x527f…0ae5backed Yes69c305.5$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.831060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146e…ab0bbacked No9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6471…32b0backed No39c299.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…d35fbacked No32c299.06$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7110%0 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.