Token Launches · resolved market
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9612305047771c819056cd82e0847002ab8ca95ecf6ea0879e7944d102c5730c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b60…bc00backed No | 1c | 23,407$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…7380backed No | 2c | 22,034$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7e…875dbacked No | 0c | 4,672$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 1c | 4,653$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…c181backed Yes | 77c | 4,398$3,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.19 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…48f9backed No | 23c | 4,371$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 9c | 3,964$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.2 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 9c | 3,421$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.61 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 1c | 3,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…c359backed No | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,880$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…2762backed No | 10c | 2,500$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…5dc2backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed No | 2c | 1,798$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…705fbacked No | 21c | 1,621$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 8c | 1,459$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…3141backed No | 11c | 1,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 6c | 979.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 909.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…904cbacked No | 6c | 774.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…2048backed No | 13c | 770.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d11…3eb3backed No | 16c | 623.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…645bbacked No | 12c | 601.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 580.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 546.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…b497backed No | 6c | 499.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…04f6backed No | 2c | 496.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabda…3823backed No | 2c | 479.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1b…5f82backed No | 11c | 471.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…d35fbacked No | 11c | 450$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…3c18backed No | 11c | 426.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…32b0backed No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1097…beacbacked No | 10c | 398.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 8c | 385.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…5f14backed No | 12c | 330.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 9c | 309.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…a9fbbacked No | 10c | 305.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…4836backed No | 17c | 293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 9c | 274.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 268.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…d2eabacked No | 7c | 223.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…4301backed No | 14c | 144.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 9c | 120.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…e4a3backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x577b…ad6abacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 14c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…ce56backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $450M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $550M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.