TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf057…ab54

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
239
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Movies, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 56 out of 100; worst Earnings at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Earningslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT5230.8%16 W · 36 L-7.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-34.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Earnings — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will MarketAxess (MKTX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.26
Will Groupon (GRPN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.42
Will DraftKings (DKNG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+121.5%+$40.32
Will Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.7
Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Hertz (HTZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.39
Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.42
Will Datadog (DDOG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.29
Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will Papa John's International (PZZA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will AppLovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+255.7%+$44.93
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.38
Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.68
Will ZoomInfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.04
Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+75%+$22.5
Will Expedia Group (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.92
Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.9
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.28
Will Walt Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Will SpaceX say "ISS" or "International Space Station" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.62
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT3959%23 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.82
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$12.75
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$25.72
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.2
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.88
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$10.15
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.02
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.34
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.93
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$7.73
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.33
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+113.8%+$26.84
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+119.7%+$20.56
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+104.9%+$27.14
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.68
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.63
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.89
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.87
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.72
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+300%+$56.5
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+98.7%+$16.62
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+79.3%+$13.5
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+127.8%+$17.71
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT3732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.57
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.57
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$25.03
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.85
Will Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.13
Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$5.8
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.96
Will George Moraitis be the FL-25 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.72
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$4.94
Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.07
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.88
Will Darline Graham Nordone place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17.73
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+653.6%+$98.79
Will 50 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+215.1%+$29.38
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.49
Will Haley Stevens win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Washtenaw County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$31.15
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+111.4%+$163.39
Will Haley Stevens win Washtenaw County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$46.2
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.26
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+179.2%+$59.29
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.99
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.79
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.07
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.48
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.66
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.43
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.36
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.48
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$10.08
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$37.8
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+150%+$63
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+333.2%+$153.85
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+317.7%+$54.82
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.28
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+781.1%+$93.08
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.75
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+230.5%+$163.45
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$47.43
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.37
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.22
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$41.79
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.85
All 25 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will there be no Likud party primary by the next Knesset Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+69.1%+$7.15
Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$10.9
Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$4.94
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$64.05
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.48
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.63
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.41
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+128.8%+$118.23
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.49
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$10.71
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.15
Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.91
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.52
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+124.2%+$13.76
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+73.6%+$53.2
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+58%+$6.83
All 19 picks, newest first.
Movieslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.69
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.23
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$4.5
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5.5
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$5.04
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be between 128m and 136m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.57
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 91 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+156.1%+$37.79
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.13
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+204.7%+$59.07
Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7.35
Will "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.08
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$8.79
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+87.6%+$49.65
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.05
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.57
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$8.91
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+325.5%+$321.3
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$36.27
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$14.04
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.44
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.56
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Musiclast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$24.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lollast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sol1xd Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (High Elo)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.