World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bca798801c7dba27bfd3517b8b4638a464a8ab8202fb55383504317667a1eee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 986.01$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 34c | 726.57$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 263.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 257.87$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 31c | 225.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 225.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 213$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 116.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 50c | 100.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 91.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 83.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 81.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 54c | 73.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 65.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 47c | 63.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 49.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 43.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 55c | 42.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 40.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 53c | 37.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 34.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 33.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 31.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 29.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 43c | 26.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 44c | 26.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 25.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 24.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 45c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 61c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 61c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 59c | 22.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 21.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 19.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 18.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 80c | 13.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.